Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
With frequent positive news from market policies, the cryptocurrency market has finally begun to warm up gradually, and altcoins have welcomed their "second spring," particularly with Meme coins showing outstanding performance: OKX Market shows that MOODENG, GOAT, WIF, BOME, and MEW have risen by 123.09%, 57.36%, 26.24%, 24.84%, and 22.64% in 24 hours, respectively. This wave of increase alongside BTC, ETH, and SOL has led many diamond hands to shout, "We're back, everyone is back," while also watching their significantly retraced positions bleed in their hearts. Regarding the future market direction, Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the recent driving factors behind the market's rise and representative industry viewpoints for readers' reference.
Macro Direct Benefits: US-China Reconciliation, Fed Signals Rate Cuts
The recent surge in the market is undoubtedly directly attributed to the tariff and business negotiations between the US and China. Additionally, thanks to a series of disruptive actions by Trump, the Federal Reserve has also softened its previously hardline stance in the face of potential economic recession, leading to a sudden increase in expectations for rate cuts this year. The favorable policy environment has shifted the market's outlook to bullish, with buying pressure quickly surpassing selling pressure.
US and China "Achieve Substantial Progress"
This morning Beijing time, the White House announced that the US has reached a trade agreement with China in Geneva. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson stated that the negotiations took place in Geneva, Switzerland, over two days and achieved "substantial progress." Both sides expressed satisfaction with the negotiation results, believing that the differences were not as significant as imagined and that the agreement was reached quickly. US officials are optimistic about the agreement, believing it will help address the trade deficit issue. He Lifeng, the Chinese lead in the US-China economic and trade talks and Vice Premier of the State Council, also stated during the press conference that the high-level talks were candid, in-depth, and constructive, achieving important consensus and substantial progress. Both sides agreed to establish a US-China economic and trade consultation mechanism.
After experiencing the previous "154% high tariffs" debacle, the US and China have finally sat down calmly to negotiate and reached a phased consensus, undoubtedly providing a sense of reassurance for both economies and the cryptocurrency market.
Fed Signals Softening, Rate Cuts Expected This Year
On May 8, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that in certain circumstances, rate cuts this year are appropriate, while in other situations, they are not. He could not confidently say he knows the appropriate interest rate path. At that time, based on futures prices, the probability of a rate cut by July was about 75%.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Cook previously stated that both inflation and unemployment rates have upward risks, and the economy may slow down in the short term; on the other hand, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos analyzed that Fed Chairman Powell downplayed expectations of rate cuts to alleviate potential economic weakness from Trump's tariffs, the latter hinted that the Fed would only consider rate cuts after seeing significant evidence of economic growth slowing, and it could be a rapid rate cut.
Overall, the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in the second half of this year has significantly increased, further repairing the previously oversold market sentiment.
Institutions Continue to Buy BTC: Public Companies Become Major Holders, BlackRock Leads the Way
As the most prominent BTC buying group in this cycle, public companies have become one of the fastest-growing groups in terms of cryptocurrency holdings; asset management institutions and ETF index funds are also in a rapid growth phase.
Metaplanet Increases Holdings by 1241 BTC, Worth Approximately $182 Million
Japanese public company Metaplanet has increased its holdings by 1241 BTC, worth approximately $182 million. As of now, the company holds a total of 6796 BTC, valued at approximately $704 million.
Strategy Continues to Buy, Annual Yield Exceeds 14%
Strategy founder Michael Saylor released information related to Bitcoin Tracker again last night. According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses its Bitcoin purchases the day after relevant news is released.
On May 5, news reported that Strategy purchased 1,895 BTC (totaling $180.3 million) between April 28 and May 4 at a price of $95,167. It also stated that as of 2025, the Bitcoin yield has reached 14.0%. As of May 4, 2025, it holds 555,450 BTC, with an average cost of $68,550, totaling a value of $38.08 billion.
Indian Public Company Jetking Enters BTC, Aiming for 18,000 BTC by 2030
Indian public company Jetking's CEO Harsh Bharwani previously stated that the company plans to gradually increase its BTC holdings through various financing tools, aiming to reach 18,000 BTC by 2030. He revealed that within the next six months, they will raise funds to expand to about 180 BTC, with a target of 1800 BTC in the following year, and complete the final holding plan before 2030.
BlackRock Recently Increased Holdings by 5613 BTC, Total Bitcoin Holdings Exceed 620,000 BTC
According to Lookonchain monitoring, on May 6, BlackRock increased its holdings by 5613 BTC, worth $529.5 million. Currently, its total Bitcoin holdings exceed 620,000 BTC, reaching 620,252 BTC, valued at $58.51 billion. Since April 21, BlackRock has purchased a total of 47,064 BTC.
On May 7, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) still ranks sixth in the US ETF fund list with a net inflow of $6.96 billion, surpassing the world's largest gold ETF (GLD) with $6.5 billion.
New Developments: Futu Opens BTC, ETH, USDT Deposit Functions, Traditional Financial Applications Integrate into Crypto System
In addition to the previously discussed buying power, the most eye-catching new variable in the cryptocurrency market recently is undoubtedly the "Futu APP opening BTC, ETH, USDT deposit functions as a traditional financial application."
Futu Launches BTC, ETH, USDT Deposit Functions
Last week, Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited announced the official launch of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) deposit services. Qualified investors can complete deposits and trade cryptocurrencies ("Crypto") through the one-stop trading platform Futu NiuNiu, allowing them to invest in more asset classes or safely withdraw funds. Investors can manage Crypto+TradFi assets (traditional financial assets, including Hong Kong, US, and Japanese stocks, options, ETFs, funds, bonds, and other diversified assets) through a single app, quickly switching between virtual and traditional asset markets.
Shanzhai Season or Shanzhai G? Market Divisions Are Significant, Still in Oversold Recovery Phase
As BTC, ETH, and SOL have experienced slight fluctuations and declines after a recent significant rise, enthusiasm for the Shanzhai season in the cryptocurrency market has reignited. However, there is considerable divergence in the viewpoints of industry representatives regarding whether we are about to enter a Shanzhai season. Some believe that altcoins will attract liquidity spilling over from mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, leading to a rise; while others argue that altcoins have already dropped 80%-90% from their highs earlier this year, and recent performance is merely a "dead cat bounce."
Bullish Side: Trader Eugene Expects Strong Rebound for Altcoins
Last Saturday, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that although he correctly judged the direction of this rise, he suffered from early stop-losses due to volatility, resulting in poor actual returns. Looking ahead, this rise to $100,000 confirms the previous support reversal at $90,000, and the market is likely to challenge historical highs again. This was not the expected situation, but funds from MicroStrategy and ETFs seem to be flowing in continuously.
In contrast, until yesterday, most veteran players in the crypto space were still on the sidelines (even shorting), but with the expectation of historical highs reigniting market enthusiasm, a strong rebound in the total market cap of altcoins is anticipated.
Bullish Side: Analysts Claim Market's Mainstream Crowd Consists of Short-Term Traders, Shanzhai Season Has Arrived
Analyst 2Lambroz believes that the peak season for altcoins may have arrived, but he states that market dynamics have changed. "People want to buy, but there is a lack of confidence in any strong narrative." He points out that, unlike in 2021, there are currently no signs of retail investors entering the market. Traders are turning over their funds more quickly, with almost no motivation to hold long positions. Technical trader Moustache has a more optimistic view. He shared a chart showing that altcoins have repeatedly gone through accumulation phases, followed by explosive growth. According to his analysis, the current structure is similar to that of 2016 and 2020. "The altcoin season of 2025 has officially begun."
Neutral Side: CryptoQuant Founder Says Previous Judgments Were Wrong, Focus Should Be on Institutional Incremental Funds
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that his judgment two months ago about the end of the BTC bull market was incorrect. Current on-chain data shows that BTC selling pressure is easing, while institutional funds from ETFs and others are flowing in on a large scale, driving changes in market structure. He pointed out that the Bitcoin market used to be mainly composed of established whales, miners, and retail investors, making it easier to judge market tops; however, now with the participation of ETFs, MicroStrategy, institutions, and government entities, the traditional logic of "whales selling triggering a top" is becoming ineffective. Ki emphasized that in the new environment, more attention should be paid to the inflow of institutional incremental funds rather than old selling pressure signals.
Bearish Side: Altcoins Down 90%, Golden Age Is Premature
Meanwhile, skeptics still exist. Commentator Rekt Fencer pointed out that since last December, most altcoins have dropped by 90%. This week's 10% slight rebound has triggered excessive optimism, prompting him to mock this rebound. "This is the golden age of altcoins we've been waiting for."
Summary: The Slight Rebound of Meme Coins Does Not Mean the Altcoin Season Has Arrived
According to Coingecko data, BTC's market share is still around 60%. Overall, it is still difficult to say that we have entered the altcoin season; rather, the previous description of "Shanzhai G" is more fitting. The coins that are currently performing well are mostly showing "partial bull market" characteristics.
As Arthur Hayes stated in early May that, "The most frequently asked question I have been getting lately is, when will the altcoin season come? And the answer is sometimes it is right in front of you. HYPE."
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