Since the BTC price broke through $85,450, it has increased by more than 19%. With altcoins performing poorly and BTC reaching a historic turning point in global money supply indicators (often signaling a strong upward trend), BTC once again tested $100,000 on the 8th and successfully broke through.

Technical Indicators: BTC Returns to the 21-Week Moving Average and Breaks Fibonacci Resistance Levels

As of April 25, BTC has regained our 21-week moving average at $87,199, providing a reasonable basis for buying call options, especially after BTC broke the Fibonacci resistance level of $87,045 and ETF inflows accelerated. Signals such as the confirmation of the moving average, Fibonacci breakout, and increased ETF inflows together form a robust tactical framework, allowing investors to capture BTC's upward potential while effectively managing risk.

Macroeconomic Background: Decrease in Rate Cut Expectations

Over the past 18 months, global monetary policy has significantly altered the flow of capital into digital assets. With interest rates remaining high, traditional investors are reassessing their risk allocations, making the Federal Reserve's communication strategy particularly crucial. The minutes from the November FOMC meeting released on December 7, 2024, shattered market expectations for four rate cuts in 2025, reducing the forecast to just two.

Market Sentiment: BTC's Dominance Rises, Altcoin Market Lacks Narrative Drivers

On-chain data reveals the degree of market differentiation. BTC's market dominance (measured by its share of the total market capitalization of the entire crypto market) has risen from 49% at the beginning of the ETF era to the current 64.5%, a level not seen since the DeFi boom of 2021. This change reflects the highest risk-adjusted returns among all major indicators in digital assets, with a clear market preference for safety.

At the same time, retail investor sentiment remains relatively low, with trading volumes on both centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols at multi-year lows. Due to a lack of strong narrative drivers—no new disruptive DeFi applications, breakthroughs in Layer-2 technology, or viral meme coin trends—retail investors are still on the sidelines. Since December 2024, discussions on social media regarding altcoins have decreased by over 40%, while discussions related to BTC remain high, reflecting ongoing market interest in BTC as a macro hedge asset.

With summer consolidation approaching and a lack of significant catalysts, sentiment-driven rallies in altcoins are difficult to form. Given that technical, macroeconomic, and market structure factors have not provided positive drivers for altcoins, the funding rates for altcoin perpetual contracts remain low. Maintaining long positions in BTC through spot or perpetual futures while using altcoin perpetual futures as a hedging tool or for decent arbitrage opportunities is advisable.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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