Event Review 🔥

Recently, the Ethereum (ETH) market has experienced significant volatility. After the first wave of positive signals appeared at 22:51, the ETH price broke through the $2000 mark for the first time, leading to a surge in market sentiment. Subsequently, during the core period from 23:00 to 23:40, driven by multiple positive news and institutional capital inflow, the price soared from nearly $1987 to $2075, with an increase of over 4% at one point. After the high rally, the market saw a correction at 00:05, stabilizing around $2049, showing a strong oscillating trend overall.

Timeline ⏰

• 22:51: The ETH price first broke through the $2000 mark, with the breakout point at approximately $2005, marking a 10% increase and a clear recovery in market sentiment.
• 23:00: The market entered a short-term reaction phase, with ETH prices hovering in the $1987–$1989 range, accompanied by multiple positive news releases including Federal Reserve decisions, employment data, and statements related to Trump’s policies.
• 23:00 to 23:40: Within 41 minutes, the price surged from $1989 to $2075, briefly breaking through the key point of $2050, with an overall increase of about 4.35%. A large influx of capital pushed the price past resistance levels.
• 00:05: After a brief high rally, the market began to consolidate, with the price retreating to approximately $2049.48, indicating that after the intense volatility, the market is seeking support levels.

Reason Analysis 📊

Macroeconomic and Policy Factors
Recently, U.S. macroeconomic data has shown strong performance, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and excellent non-farm data, signaling stability in the economic fundamentals. Additionally, Trump's statements regarding tariff policies and trade agreements with the UK not only released signals of market easing but also boosted the strategic asset reserves of some countries, enhancing investor confidence.

Ethereum Technical Upgrade
Ethereum recently completed its first Pectra upgrade following last year's "Cancun upgrade." This upgrade brought significant improvements in smart accounts, delegation features, and overall on-chain performance, effectively enhancing network security and user experience. This technological advancement is widely viewed positively by both institutions and retail investors, becoming one of the important signals for market bottom-fishing.

Institutional Capital and Mainstream Trends
Monitoring data shows that institutions such as Abraxas Capital have recently begun adjusting their ETH positions, while some main capital has withdrawn from exchanges, further confirming that institutions are strategically positioning themselves. In the past hour, the total market order volume reached tens of millions of dollars, with a net inflow of about $30 million, indicating that capital is betting on a bullish trend in the future.

Technical Analysis 🔍

This technical analysis is based on Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick data, with the main technical indicators as follows:

• Bollinger Bands and Price Channels: The current price is running along the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong bullish signal, but the price nearing the upper band also suggests overbought risks.
• KDJ and RSI: The KDJ indicator is in the overbought zone and starting to converge, while the RSI indicator also shows an overbought state, which may indicate a certain degree of correction in the short term.
• Moving Average System: The price remains above MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50, with all moving averages in a bullish arrangement; the EMA5/10/20/50/120 moving averages are also clearly rising, showing an overall strong bullish trend. The slope of EMA20 is close to 1.95%, while the long-term EMA120, although with a lower slope (0.63%), is also maintaining an upward trend, indicating a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.
• TD Sequential Indicator: Currently, a bearish Setup (value of 9) and TD price reversal signal have appeared, which may indicate that the market will see some profit-taking actions soon.
• Volume Analysis: In the short term, trading volume surged by 129.24%, and the current trading volume is significantly higher than the recent average, indicating a sharp increase in market activity, but in some cases, this may trigger panic selling.

Market Outlook 🚀

In summary, although the recent ETH volatility has been intense, the overall market shows a clearer bullish trend due to the improvement in macro fundamentals, positive momentum from technological upgrades, and institutional capital positioning. In the short term, investors need to pay attention to the adjustment risks brought by overbought indicators, and the bearish signals from TD Sequential may indicate some profit-taking. However, the positive impact of Ethereum's upgrades and the improvement of its ecosystem will continue to support its future market performance. It is recommended that investors:

• Pay attention to key support levels (such as around $2000) and resistance levels (in the $2050–$2075 range).
• Carefully control positions and adjust holdings appropriately to avoid sudden correction risks after overbought conditions.
• Consider bottom-fishing while being mindful of the impact of regulatory policies and institutional trends on market sentiment.

Overall, despite the significant short-term fluctuations, both the fundamental and technical aspects of ETH currently show positive signs. Investors can participate appropriately under strict risk control to lock in the potential for long-term growth in the future.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。