In the context of the ongoing profound evolution of the global macro environment, the cryptocurrency industry is ushering in a new round of structural transformation. HTX, the global investment department of Huobi, recently released a report titled “Industry Observation: The Crypto Wave and Potential Opportunities in the Macro Game”, which deeply analyzes the core changes and potential opportunities in the cryptocurrency market during the current cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin is gradually moving away from its traditional positioning as "digital gold," aligning more closely with the trends of risk assets; meanwhile, the Trump administration's policy support for the cryptocurrency industry has propelled it from a gray area of regulatory suppression to a "satellite asset" benefiting from the overflow of U.S. dollar liquidity. The structure of traders has also fundamentally changed, shifting from a retail-dominated landscape to one led by institutions, accelerating the entry of crypto assets into the mainstream market system.
The core driving force of this cycle is no longer endogenous innovation within the industry, but rather the process of legitimization and dollarization of the cryptocurrency sector. Unlike the DeFi wave of 2020 or the ICO boom of 2017, the cryptocurrency industry has become a field of technological innovation actively promoted by the U.S. government in this cycle. The concept of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve further strengthens the potential demand foundation for the industry, injecting new growth momentum into the market.
The trend of dollarization in the cryptocurrency industry continues to deepen, serving as both an important engine for industry growth and a potential source of risk. Bitcoin demonstrated its capital hedging function independent of the traditional financial system during the Russia-Ukraine war, but in recent geopolitical events, Bitcoin's price has fallen in sync with risk assets, reflecting its close correlation with macro liquidity.
The Bitcoin market is now deeply controlled by institutional investors. The open interest in CME contracts surged significantly after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, maintaining a long-term level of over $10 billion. Institutions are leveraging spot ETFs and futures basis arbitrage to amplify returns with high leverage, causing Bitcoin price fluctuations to become a threefold leveraged version of the Nasdaq index. This structure means that during periods of ample liquidity, Bitcoin's gains will outpace tech stocks; conversely, during liquidity tightening cycles, Bitcoin's declines will be more severe.
On the policy front, the U.S. has made substantial progress in advancing the compliance process for the cryptocurrency industry. The FIT21 Act clarifies the regulatory boundaries for digital assets, bringing highly decentralized tokens under CFTC regulation and establishing a 3 to 5-year "safe harbor" mechanism to encourage new projects to transition to compliance. At the same time, the repeal of SAB 121 has broken down policy barriers for banks to custody cryptocurrency assets, with traditional financial giants like JPMorgan and Citigroup sequentially entering the crypto asset custody business, expected to manage over $50 billion by the end of Q2 2025.
In terms of regulatory personnel, crypto-friendly Paul S. Atkins has taken over as SEC Chairman, and the new leadership is pushing for adjustments to the Howey test standards to reduce the proportion of tokens classified as securities and expand the range of assets applicable for ETFs. This series of reforms is releasing more potential growth space for the cryptocurrency market.
A wave of capitalization among crypto enterprises is surging, with leading crypto companies like Kraken and Fireblocks preparing for IPOs, valued at approximately $20 billion and $9 billion, respectively. Meanwhile, several top investment banks on Wall Street have established cryptocurrency investment departments, and sovereign funds are indirectly positioning themselves in Bitcoin by increasing their stakes in strategic tech companies.
At the same time, the U.S. is brewing a federal Bitcoin reserve plan, proposing to purchase no more than 200,000 Bitcoins annually over the next five years to establish a distributed secure storage network as a long-term national strategic asset. Although funding sources still face legislative and fiscal challenges, related discussions have brought Bitcoin into the forefront of national asset management topics.
Legislation on stablecoins is also accelerating. At the beginning of 2025, Trump signed an executive order encouraging the development of compliant dollar-backed stablecoins while prohibiting the research and development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to protect market freedom and individual privacy. The rapid legislation of related bills will accelerate the integration of the traditional financial system with the cryptocurrency market, paving the way for the compliant issuance and application of stablecoins.
Based on the above context, HTX Ventures has analyzed important economic indicators in the U.S. From a macro perspective, inflation data is controllable, but there are no obvious signs of economic recession. Non-farm employment and unemployment rate indicators show that economic resilience remains, and the Federal Reserve is expected to consider interest rate cuts only after significant economic downward pressure emerges. Before the arrival of interest rate cuts, due to tightening liquidity, both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market still face risks of phase fluctuations.
The passage of the "Beautiful Big Bill" budget resolution will continue the tax reduction policies of 2017 and introduce new tax incentives for the service industry and low- to middle-income groups. At the same time, raising the federal debt ceiling and adjusting fiscal spending means that U.S. fiscal policy will continue to be accommodative, likely injecting more liquidity into the capital markets.
Overall, the cryptocurrency industry is playing an increasingly important role in the global macro game. Policy dividends, the trend of dollarization, and the process of institutionalization constitute the three pillars of this cycle. In future developments, the market performance of crypto assets will become more closely intertwined with the global macro environment, geopolitical dynamics, and monetary policy changes, presenting new cyclical characteristics and investment opportunities. At the same time, as policies continue to loosen, it will inevitably give rise to truly endogenous narratives of blockchain innovation, injecting unprecedented vitality into the industry.
In this wave of transformation, HTX Ventures will continue to gain insights into global macro trends, explore potential opportunities, and firmly support the compliance and innovative development of the cryptocurrency industry, contributing to the construction of a more open, transparent, and sustainable digital asset ecosystem.
About HTX Ventures
HTX Ventures is the global investment department of Huobi HTX, integrating investment, incubation, and research to identify the best and brightest teams worldwide. As an industry pioneer, HTX Ventures has over 11 years of experience in blockchain development, specializing in identifying cutting-edge technologies and emerging business models in the field. To promote growth within the blockchain ecosystem, we provide comprehensive support for projects, including financing, resources, and strategic advice.
HTX Ventures currently supports over 300 projects across multiple blockchain sectors, with some high-quality projects already trading on Huobi HTX. Additionally, as one of the most active FOF funds, HTX Ventures invests in 30 top global funds and collaborates with leading blockchain funds such as Polychain, Dragonfly, Bankless, Gitcoin, Figment, Nomad, Animoca, and Hack VC to jointly build the blockchain ecosystem.
For investment and collaboration inquiries, please feel free to contact VC@htx-inc.com
This article is contributed and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.
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