Last week (April 29 - May 5), the BTC price experienced a wide range of fluctuations after a high-level consolidation and subsequent decline. On April 30, the BTC price rebounded after hitting a low of $92,910, and consolidated at a high between $96,000 and $97,000, reaching a peak of $97,895.68. After multiple attempts to test the $98,000 level on May 2 without success, BTC began to decline, currently stabilizing around $94,372 with a maximum fluctuation of 5.36% during the week.
ETH showed an overall "M" shaped fluctuation this week. On April 30, ETH rose from a low of $1,731.70 to around $1,800, then attempted to test the $1,900 support level twice without success, peaking at $1,873.17, with a maximum fluctuation of 8.16% during the week. Currently, the ETH price has retreated to consolidate around $1,700 - $1,800, with the current price at $1,801.72 (data source: Binance spot, May 6, 17:00).
Market Highlights
Forex market volatility is significant, possibly becoming a new indicator of macro policy
In the past week, currencies in the Asia-Pacific region generally strengthened, with the Korean won and RMB both appreciating, and the Taiwanese dollar seeing a weekly increase of over 8%. The spot and one-year forward contract spread for the Taiwanese dollar reached a 20-year high. The rise in the Taiwanese dollar may be influenced by factors such as speculation about a US-Taiwan trade agreement, Taiwanese insurance institutions increasing dollar asset hedging, and large trades converting to dollars.
Given the significant fluctuations in the yen last year due to interest rate differentials, it cannot be ruled out that the current fluctuations in the Taiwanese dollar exchange rate are an early signal of global capital flow adjustments, with the forex market potentially becoming a barometer for macro changes.
Central bank gold purchases slow down, gold token minting reaches a three-year high
As central bank gold purchases slow, the gold market is undergoing a structural transformation. Data shows that in April, the minting volume of gold-backed tokens exceeded $80 million, reaching a three-year high, with the industry market value increasing to $1.43 billion and monthly transfer volume soaring 77% to $1.27 billion.
Global gold demand in the first quarter reached 1,206 tons, a slight year-on-year increase, but net purchases by central banks fell to 244 tons, a significant decline from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, demand for gold ETFs doubled to 552 tons, becoming the main source of capital driving gold prices.
Non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, market rebound boosts risk appetite
The latest non-farm payroll data shows that the US added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding market expectations of 138,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. Although the growth rate has slowed, the employment market still shows some resilience, reducing market panic over an economic recession.
After the data was released, US Treasury yields rose, the dollar rebounded, and all three major stock index futures rose, with Dow futures up over 1%. However, influenced by Trump's information on "pharmaceutical" tariff policies, all three major indices closed lower on the 5th, ending the Dow and S&P's nine-day winning streak.
Despite non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 97.3%, and the market remains cautious about the medium to long-term economic outlook. The Federal Reserve has not indicated a clear intention to change direction, and the policy path still depends on subsequent data performance and the uncertain impact of tariff policies.
More Information
US consumer confidence hits a new low since the pandemic, tariffs and inflation expectations are major drags
The latest data shows that the US consumer confidence index fell sharply in April, with the Conference Board index dropping to 86.0, the lowest since May 2020; the preliminary Michigan University index was only 50.8, approaching a historical second-low level. The market generally believes that the recent escalation of tariff policies by the Trump administration and their expected impact on future prices are the main factors triggering this collapse in confidence.
High inflation expectations combined with short-term inventory spikes pose a structural "overstated" risk to first-quarter GDP, leading the market to adopt a conservative outlook for annual growth. Panic-driven imports by businesses are unlikely to be sustainable, and the weakening core consumption momentum is a more concerning signal.
The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma of "high inflation + low growth." Increased volatility in stocks and bonds, gold benefiting from safe-haven sentiment, and the crypto market showing divergence amid economic and liquidity expectation battles.
Tariffs may drag down Mag 7 performance, AI becomes a watershed for tech stocks
Under the heavy pressure of Trump's tariff policies and expectations of weak consumption, the earnings season for tech giants shows significant divergence. Microsoft delivered better-than-expected results thanks to the continued strength of its Azure cloud business and AI strategy, with its stock price rising over 11% in the week following the earnings report, regaining the title of the world's most valuable company and becoming the only company in the "Mag 7" with positive stock price growth this year.
In contrast, Apple and Amazon are under pressure from rising hardware costs and cooling consumption, with a combined market value evaporating by nearly $180 billion. Apple disclosed that tariffs bring about $900 million in additional costs each quarter, while Amazon lowered its profit expectations.
Bloomberg data shows that Mag 7 companies are expected to see a 21.6% increase in profits and a 9.7% increase in revenue by 2025, both revised upward from the previous week. Continued strong capital expenditure related to AI is driving rebounds in chip and hardware stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom. Although Apple and Tesla's earnings reports are under pressure, overall, tech companies demonstrate strong resilience and growth potential.
US House of Representatives releases crypto regulation draft, clarifying digital asset classification and regulatory boundaries
On May 5, two key committees of the US House of Representatives jointly released a discussion draft for crypto asset regulation, proposing to establish a unified federal regulatory framework, clarifying the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, and providing legal definitions for key concepts such as digital assets, blockchain systems, and stablecoins. On May 6, the House will hold a public hearing to gather opinions from the industry and the public.
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