Thank you, Brother Guilin. I really don't have much insight in this area. Class Skipper @TJ_Research01 is clearer, but I also want to share my views, and I hope the experts can provide some guidance.

Let's assume that Trump's essence is to bring manufacturing back, and the path to achieve this is through:

Lowering import tariffs → Reducing trade deficits → Easing demand for the dollar → Weakening the dollar → Enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. exports → Manufacturing returning

This pathway, however, the dollar exchange rate is not solely determined by trade. For example, if the U.S. economy continues to thrive in the coming period, and Trump's tariffs increase inflation, along with tax cuts also increasing inflation, then the Federal Reserve may continue to maintain high interest rates or even raise them. In this case, even if the trade deficit is reduced, the continued rate hikes may still lead to an increase in the dollar.

From this perspective, the responsibilities of the Federal Reserve and the White House are different. The Federal Reserve aims to maintain price stability, while the White House focuses on economic development. However, the actual control over interest rates lies with the Federal Reserve, not the White House.

Therefore, we can see that although Trump has started to confront Powell, he can only vent his dissatisfaction through complaints, rather than bypassing the Federal Reserve to directly lower interest rates. So I believe that using tariffs to lower the dollar to bring back manufacturing is fundamentally not a problem, but the execution chain may not be that simple.

Secondly, during the Trump 1.0 era, when tariffs were increased (trade war), the dollar did not show significant depreciation; instead, it maintained a strong position most of the time. So I personally think that Trump's lowering of tariffs may be aimed at reducing inflation, boosting the stock market, and improving GDP surface data, making it more likely for manufacturing to return through trade coercion. For instance, today, Bessent mentioned that Trump secured more investments for the U.S. in 100 days than President Biden did in four years.

The main reason still lies in trade coercion, and in fact, the dollar is now heading back to 100.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。