Zhou Yanling: 5.3 Non-Farm Payrolls Reduce the Possibility of Rate Cuts in June - Predictions and Analysis of Future Trends in the Cryptocurrency Market
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is now 100%, and the expectations for a rate cut in June are fading? The U.S. released the April non-farm payroll data, showing an increase of 177,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 130,000; the unemployment rate recorded at 4.2%, in line with expectations. After the release of the non-farm data, the Fed's spokesperson stated that the non-farm data remains robust, making the probability of a rate cut in June even smaller, dropping from over 60% before the data release to 50%. The job growth exceeding expectations indicates a strong U.S. economy, which may prompt the Fed to maintain or accelerate its rate hike pace. In a rate hike environment, dollar assets become more attractive, and funds may flow from high-risk assets like Bitcoin to bonds and the dollar, potentially leading to a decline in cryptocurrency prices. Additionally, a declining unemployment rate is typically seen as a signal of economic health, further supporting the Fed's hawkish stance, giving them reason to continue tightening monetary policy, which is unfavorable for high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Although the data release did not have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, considering the reduced probability of future rate cuts, it will still cause some volatility in cryptocurrency prices, so everyone should pay attention to risk management in recent operations. Currently, from a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that prices are gradually recovering and have formed a strong rebound trend in the past two days. The MACD indicator on the hourly chart is positive and gradually increasing, indicating some upward momentum in the short term. The daily MACD is also in the positive area, supporting a bullish outlook in the medium term. The hourly RSI is close to the overbought zone (63.37) but has not yet entered extreme overbought territory. The daily RSI remains at a healthy level, with no significant overbought or oversold signals. The hourly EMA7 and EMA30 have both crossed upwards, supporting a short-term bullish outlook; EMA120 remains a long-term support level. The daily EMA shows a bullish arrangement, further confirming the medium-term upward trend.
Zhou Yanling's 5.3 Bitcoin Trading Strategy:
Buy at 96,000-97,000, stop loss below 95,000, target 98,000-99,000
Sell at 99,500-98,500, stop loss above 100,500, target 97,300-96,300
Zhou Yanling's 5.3 Ethereum Trading Strategy:
Buy at 1,785-1,820, stop loss below 1,740, target 1,870-1,900, continue to look for 1,960 nearby
Sell at 1,950-1,910, stop loss above 1,990, target 1,850-1,810
[The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article review and publication may have delays, and the strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow Yanling's real-time strategies.]
This content is exclusively shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling (WeChat public account: Zhou Yanling). The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for over ten years, currently mainly analyzing and guiding BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV, and other cryptocurrency contracts/spot operations. For more real-time community guidance, consultation on position liquidation, and learning trading skills, you can follow the teacher's public account: Zhou Yanling to find the teacher.
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