Event Review 🔔

In a recent round of severe fluctuations, the price of Ethereum (ETH) was fixed at $1815 at 20:00, quickly declining and breaking through key support levels in a short time. Continuous selling pressure in the market led to a rapid drop from $1815 to $1744 within 111 minutes, with an overall decline of nearly 4%. In the following two hours, ETH further slid to $1731, accumulating a total drop of 4.64%, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment. At 22:15, although there was a technical rebound, with the price rising to about $1760.3, the overall oscillation pattern had not yet stabilized, leaving investors facing significant uncertainty.

Timeline ⏰

• 20:00 – ETH price fixed at $1815. At this time, the market was impacted by negative macro news, including the unexpected negative growth of the U.S. Q1 GDP, declining core PCE data, and a significant drop in U.S. stocks, leading to a surge in risk-averse sentiment.
• 20:00 to 21:51 – In just 111 minutes, the ETH price plummeted from $1815 to $1744, during which large short positions and institutional fund reallocations triggered the breach of technical support.
• 20:00 to 22:00 – The overall downward trend continued, with the price falling to $1731, a decline of 4.64%, indicating an intensification of market chain reactions.
• 22:15 – After a brief rebound, the ETH price rose to $1760.3, but there was still a significant gap from the opening price.

Reason Analysis 💥

1. Macroeconomic and Policy Factors

• The unexpected negative growth of the U.S. Q1 GDP, coupled with declining core PCE price data, signaled a slowdown in economic growth.
• The significant drop in U.S. stocks and rising risk-averse sentiment led to a decrease in overall risk appetite, causing high-risk assets (such as crypto assets) to face fund adjustments.

1. Institutional Players and Technical Operations

• Multiple large short orders and whales reallocating funds in key areas (such as around $94,900) caused a noticeable change in fund flow in the market in a short period.
• ETF fund flows and institutional strategy adjustments further exacerbated short-term market volatility, with the breach of technical support triggering a chain of sell-offs.

Technical Analysis 📊

(Data based on Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute candlestick)

• Price Action and Bollinger Bands
• ETH is currently moving along the lower Bollinger Band, showing signs of being oversold, with the market overall in a weak trend.
• Moving Average System and KDJ Indicator
• From the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA5 to EMA120 moving averages, the price has been consistently below all moving averages, which are in a bearish arrangement, indicating that the short, medium, and long-term downtrend is still ongoing.
• The KDJ indicator has gradually converged, suggesting that the current trend momentum is weakening, but technical correction still needs confirmation.
• Trading Volume and Liquidation Data
• In the past hour, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $10 million, with long positions accounting for 82%, indicating heavy internal selling pressure in the market.
• At the same time, large transaction data shows a net outflow of $20 million in main funds, further confirming ongoing selling pressure.
• MACD and TD Price Reversal
• The MACD histogram has been decreasing continuously, indicating that the downward momentum remains strong.
• Additionally, a local bullish TD price reversal signal has appeared, which may be an early sign of a trend change, but more significant data support is needed for a fundamental reversal.

Market Outlook 🔮

Currently, although ETH experienced a technical rebound at 22:15, the overall price remains at a low level. Macroeconomic factors, institutional operations, and technical indicators all suggest that market risk sentiment has not dissipated. Future trends may present the following scenarios:

• Short-term Consolidation: If risk-averse sentiment continues, ETH may hover around the lower support level (approximately between $1730 and $1750), waiting for clear signals from macro data or institutional reallocations.
• Reversal Opportunity Development Stage: The bullish engulfing pattern and TD price reversal in the technical analysis indicate potential bullish signals, but the trend change will only have high reliability if accompanied by trading volume.
• Risks and Opportunities Coexist: If positive macro news or a warming of institutional funds occurs, it may trigger a rebound. However, at this stage, investors should remain cautious, appropriately control their positions, and closely monitor changes in macroeconomic data and market fund flows.

Overall, ETH is currently in a phase of severe volatility intertwined with market panic. Investors should consider both technical indicators and macro fundamentals when making operations, adhere to strict risk management strategies, and avoid unnecessary risks due to short-term emotional fluctuations.

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