The market may gradually weaken its focus on short-term tariff uncertainties. Although the likelihood of a comprehensive recovery of the macro environment is low—tariffs still exist, companies may delay capital expenditures, and consumers remain cautious—there are still moderate re-pricing opportunities in the U.S. stock market, which will support risk assets including BTC.

BTC stabilizes above the 21-week moving average, showing clear upward potential

Currently, the price of BTC has risen to $93,653, breaking through and stabilizing above the 21-week moving average. The 21-week moving average is our preferred and intuitive technical indicator for assessing market bullish and bearish trends. BTC has re-broken and stabilized above the 21-week moving average, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $87,045. This price level can now be seen as a reasonable stop-loss point for long positions. Although summer markets typically exhibit range-bound fluctuations, BTC still has further upward potential, especially with the recent strong performance of gold, which further strengthens the rationale for allocating Bitcoin from a macro perspective.

Gold becomes the ultimate choice for safe-haven assets, showing significant vertical momentum

Since the beginning of 2024, the spot price of gold has risen by about 150%. As stock markets, bond markets, and risk asset enthusiasts continuously seek capital safe havens amid uncertain economic conditions, gold has recently shown a vertical surge, entering a short-term consolidation after breaking through $3,500/ounce. Data shows that this rise in gold prices mainly occurred during the Asian trading session, and there is a possibility of funds from official or central banks shifting from the dollar to other safe-haven assets.

During this round of rising cycles, the market value of gold tokens has also been continuously increasing, among which XAUm, a gold token launched by Matrixport's RWA platform, is anchored 1:1 to LBMA-certified 99.99% gold bars and supports physical redemption, rapidly gaining adoption in on-chain gold tokens. This week, the first batch of physical gold bar redemptions for XAUm has also sparked market discussions.

The peak of the dollar cycle may provide support for BTC price increases

BTC may still maintain a range-bound consolidation for a period of time, but changes in the macro environment, especially the dollar cycle potentially nearing its peak, may provide substantial support for BTC. This trend has already supported gold and may also benefit BTC. Global dollar asset holders are continuously seeking asset diversification, gradually reducing their reliance on the dollar, a process expected to last for several years.

BTC spot ETF fund flows are currently an important investment indicator

At the same time, the inflow of funds into BTC spot ETFs is expected to accelerate. This could become a key indicator that the market needs to focus on, especially if the inflow accelerates and occurs earlier than expected, which would challenge our previous assumption—that ETF funds would only warm up after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell shifts to a dovish stance. Although this shift has not yet occurred, this indicator remains an important signal that traders must closely monitor.

BTC is currently approaching the upper range of $73,000 to $94,000, and traders may consider a "Stock Replacement Strategy." This strategy involves taking profits on existing BTC positions and converting to a more neutral position, such as using 5% of funds to purchase call options with a strike price of 110% of the current market price (i.e., 10% out of the money). If BTC pulls back, the maximum loss is limited to 5% of the option cost; if the upward trend continues, investors can still enjoy the potential for gains while keeping risks manageable. This is an efficient strategy for maintaining flexible allocation in a highly uncertain market environment.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。