In the fourth week, market sentiment significantly improved as Trump's tariff policy showed signs of easing. Both the U.S. and China simultaneously reduced tariffs on certain components, alleviating concerns about an escalation in the trade war. At the same time, Trump clarified that he had no intention of removing Powell, stabilizing expectations regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Although the ceasefire proposal between Russia and Ukraine was not accepted, the possibility of a cooling in geopolitical tensions boosted risk appetite. Both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin saw a rebound, with BTC showing slightly stronger gains, but it still has not shaken off its correlation with traditional markets.

This round of increase is more of a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. On-chain data indicates that holders' confidence has strengthened, with large investors continuing to accumulate and exchange balances declining, showing clear structural improvement.

However, against the backdrop of GDP downgrades and unclear macro policies, the rebound is still constrained by policy uncertainty, and a true reversal signal has yet to appear.

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