Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “The Ripple vs. SEC Lawsuit Nears Its End: A Review of the Four-Year Battle and Market Outlook”
In December 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs Inc., igniting one of the most representative regulatory battles in cryptocurrency history. The SEC accused Ripple of conducting an unregistered securities offering through the sale of XRP tokens since 2013, totaling up to $1.3 billion. Essentially, the SEC views XRP as a security (similar to stocks or investment contracts) and therefore subject to securities law regulation. Ripple firmly denies this claim, emphasizing that XRP is a digital currency and does not fall under the category of securities, thus should not be regulated by the SEC. This fundamental disagreement over the classification of XRP initiated a years-long legal tug-of-war and caused significant upheaval in the global crypto market.
After the lawsuit was announced, XRP investors and the entire blockchain industry were shocked. Previously, the SEC had never so publicly filed a lawsuit against a mainstream crypto asset (XRP was once one of the top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization). Almost overnight, market sentiment plummeted, and many exchanges, especially those serving U.S. users, suspended or delisted XRP trading to avoid risk. Ripple's executives stated they would fight back vigorously, pointing out that the SEC had not provided any clear guidance on whether XRP constituted a security. This regulatory uncertainty and Ripple's strong counterattack became the main storyline of the “XRP vs. SEC” saga over the next few years.
Here are several landmark legal milestones and developments during the Ripple lawsuit:
December 22, 2020 – SEC officially sues Ripple: The SEC filed a lawsuit in the New York federal court, causing XRP's price to plummet over 50% within days. Several exchanges, including Coinbase, announced the delisting of XRP. Ripple issued a statement claiming that this action was not just against Ripple but a blow to the entire crypto industry.
Early 2021 – Initial skirmishes: Ripple achieved several procedural victories, including obtaining internal SEC documents regarding crypto classification. The court also allowed XRP holders to submit opinions as “friends of the court.” Although the lawsuit was still pending, XRP's price rebounded along with the overall market.
Mid-2021 – Evidence disclosure battle: Both parties entered the discovery phase. Ripple requested the disclosure of internal drafts of a 2018 speech by a former SEC official (which had suggested that Ethereum was not a security). The judge ultimately ruled that the SEC must hand over some internal emails, seen as a victory for Ripple.
End of 2022 – Both parties request summary judgment: After nearly two years of evidence exchange, both Ripple and the SEC filed requests for summary judgment, asking the court to rule directly on the case without a trial. Ripple argued that the SEC lacked clear guidance and that the accusations were unfounded; the SEC insisted that Ripple had illegally raised funds, with solid evidence. Multiple institutions submitted “friends of the court” documents, emphasizing the case's significant implications for the entire crypto industry.
July 13, 2023 – Milestone ruling: Judge Analisa Torres issued a split ruling: XRP itself is not a security, and XRP purchased by ordinary investors through exchanges (programmatic sales) does not constitute an investment contract. This was a significant victory for Ripple. However, the court also found that Ripple had directly sold XRP to institutional investors and promised returns, constituting a securities offering. Thus, both parties had wins and losses. Notably, this ruling clarified that XRP trading in the secondary market does not constitute a security, leading to a surge in XRP's price, with multiple exchanges considering relisting XRP.
Second half of 2023 – Ongoing tug-of-war: The SEC was dissatisfied with the ruling regarding retail trading of XRP and filed for an interim appeal. The court denied this request, stating that the case was not fully resolved. The court also scheduled a hearing in mid-2024 to determine whether two Ripple executives would bear personal responsibility. Ripple's executives expressed optimism, and the entire industry viewed the ruling as a benchmark.
Early 2024 – Acceleration of settlement negotiations: Under the pressure of the split ruling and lengthy litigation, both parties began negotiating a settlement. By March 2024, the judge suggested that both sides work towards a settlement before April to avoid a trial. The SEC was also embroiled in other crypto-related lawsuits (such as accusations against Coinbase and Binance), adding momentum for a settlement.
March 2025 – Case reaches a settlement: After several months of negotiations, both parties finally reached a principled agreement in March 2025 and submitted a joint motion to the court to cease litigation. Ripple agreed to pay a $50 million fine (far below the SEC's initial demand of $125 million) while not admitting to any wrongdoing. The SEC dropped its appeal and accepted the ruling that XRP does not constitute a security in the secondary market. This settlement, pending final court approval, will officially conclude the four-year “Ripple vs. SEC” battle.
As of April 2025, the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC has essentially come to a close. The U.S. Court of Appeals has approved both parties' request to pause the SEC's appeal process regarding the 2023 ruling, clearly indicating that an agreement has been reached. Ripple's legal team revealed that the SEC has decided not to appeal, formally accepting the judge's previous ruling: XRP's circulation on exchanges does not constitute a securities offering.
According to the terms of the agreement, Ripple will pay a $50 million fine (previously held in escrow by a third party) but does not admit to any fault or wrongdoing. This outcome not only marks the end of the case but also represents a phased victory for Ripple in its long struggle.
Currently, the regulatory environment in the U.S. is quietly shifting: the SEC has recently concluded or settled several crypto cases, indicating a more lenient stance. The outcome of the Ripple lawsuit may become an important precedent for future crypto asset regulation. For instance, discussions about the possibility of launching an XRP ETF (exchange-traded fund) have also become active again. Ripple also plans to further promote the use of XRP in cross-border payments globally (such as its ODL network).
During this lengthy litigation, the market performance of XRP has been like a roller coaster—plummeting during bad news and soaring during good news. Looking back from 2020 to 2025, XRP's price fluctuations have closely correlated with the progress of the lawsuit.
End of 2020: When the lawsuit was first announced, XRP plummeted from about $0.60 to $0.20, a drop of over 60%. Most U.S. exchanges delisted XRP. International platforms like Gate.io continued to trade XRP, preserving liquidity for global investors, leading to a surge in trading volume.
Early 2021: As Ripple won early procedural victories, the court allowed XRP holders to voice their opinions, and the overall crypto market rebounded, XRP strongly rebounded to $1.80.
2022: The overall market entered a bear phase, with XRP fluctuating between $0.30 and $0.60. Although there were occasional small increases due to favorable developments in the lawsuit, the overall trend remained weak.
July 2023: After the judge ruled that XRP does not constitute a security in the retail market, XRP surged to over $0.90 on the same day, with trading volume briefly exceeding Bitcoin. Multiple exchanges resumed listings, and market confidence significantly recovered.
2024: As the SEC prepared to appeal, XRP slightly retraced to below $0.50. However, during this phase, the market became more rational, believing that even if Ripple lost, there would still be ample funds and negotiation space, and XRP had shown resilience.
Early 2025: As settlement news became clearer, XRP broke through $2.00, briefly touching $3.00, reaching a new high since 2018. By April, XRP stabilized in the $2.10–$2.20 range, ranking fourth by market capitalization (behind only BTC, ETH, and USDT), with strong bullish sentiment in the market.
Short-term forecast (next few months): From a technical perspective, XRP's trend is strong. Recently breaking through $2, it has formed a typical “inverse head-and-shoulders” pattern, indicating further upside potential. If it successfully breaks through the $3–$3.30 resistance, it may challenge the historical high of $3.84. Support is found in the $1.70–$2.00 range; if it retraces to this level, it may attract more buying interest.
Long-term forecast (end of 2025 and beyond): Whether XRP can significantly rise in the future will depend on its real-world application expansion, especially in the cross-border payments sector. If Ripple successfully collaborates with more financial institutions and launches new products like an XRP ETF, XRP may enter the $5–$10 range in the medium to long term. However, some conservative analyses suggest that XRP has already seen significant gains, and future trends may stabilize. In reality, its price may maintain in the $3–$5 range unless market enthusiasm reignites or usage significantly increases.
The dispute between Ripple and the SEC has finally come to an end, giving XRP the opportunity to redefine itself. This four-year regulatory battle has become a pivotal turning point in crypto history. Now, XRP no longer bears the shadow of legal troubles and can focus on developing its value and global presence. For investors, now is a good time to reassess XRP's potential.
Related: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will launch futures contracts for Ripple (XRP).
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