Event Review 🚀

Starting at 23:00 on April 14, the price of ETH quickly dropped from a high of about $1673. In just 46 minutes, it fell from $1674 to $1618, a decline of approximately 3.35%, and by 00:10, the cumulative drop reached about 3.54%. During this round of sharp decline, the market was first impacted by macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, followed by the triggering of technical stop-losses, which intensified the overall selling pressure as institutional funds exited. By 00:15, the price slightly rebounded to $1631.47, but overall it remained in a low-level fluctuation, with market sentiment still cautious.

Timeline ⏰

• 23:00: ETH price around $1673–$1674, initially affected by global trade tensions, tariff adjustments, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve; institutions began to reduce positions, and initial technical selling appeared.
• 23:00–23:46: Within 46 minutes, the ETH price plummeted from $1674 to $1618, breaking through a key support level (around $1650), with the stop-loss effect further exacerbating the market downturn.
• 23:00–00:10: The price continued to decline, further probing down to $1613 from around $1673, indicating persistent selling pressure and institutional fund exits.
• 00:15: The market saw a brief rebound, with ETH rising to $1631.47, but the overall downward trend remained unchanged, and subsequent movements were filled with uncertainty.

Reason Analysis 🔍

The recent volatility in ETH prices can be attributed to the following two main reasons:

1. Macroeconomic and Policy Uncertainty
   The intensifying global trade tensions and news of the U.S. imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods, combined with market uncertainty regarding the upcoming U.S. CPI data and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, led investors to turn to safe-haven assets, reducing their investments in high-risk assets and driving overall market capital outflow.

2. Institutional Fund Movements and Technical Selling Pressure
   Multiple reports indicate that institutional-level funds began to fluctuate, with some large institutions and well-known investment firms gradually reducing their positions. Additionally, after the key support level for ETH (around $1650) was breached, technical stop-losses were quickly triggered, leading to a chain reaction of selling that further amplified the market's downward momentum.

Technical Analysis 📊

(Data based on [ETH/USDT Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute] candlestick)

• Moving Average System:

• EMA5 crossed below EMA10, forming a death cross signal in the short term, indicating rising short-term pressure.

• The price encountered resistance near MA20 but formed mid-term support at MA50, showing some buying strength.

• In the long term, the price remains above the EMA120 moving average, indicating that the ultra-long-term trend is still bullish, but the short-term adjustment trend is evident.

• Indicator Signals:

• MACD has formed a death cross, with the histogram continuously decreasing, indicating significant downward momentum.

• The KDJ indicator is diverging, and the OBV indicator has broken below previous lows and turned negative, indicating that selling pressure is dominant.

• In terms of trading volume, the trading volume increased by 37.09% in the last hour, with the 10-day and 20-day average volumes rising by 64.83% and 31.31%, respectively, indicating active market trading but heavy selling pressure.

• Large Transactions and Liquidation Data:

• In the last hour, the total liquidation amount across the network was approximately $6 million, with long positions accounting for as much as 92%, while net outflow of main funds was about $30 million, further corroborating the combined effect of institutional fund exits and market pessimism.

Market Outlook 🌈

In the short term, ETH may continue to fluctuate at low levels. If the price cannot effectively recover the key support level (such as $1650), technical stop-losses may trigger a larger decline. Investors are advised to closely monitor the following points:

• Support and Resistance:
  The price is receiving some support near MA50, but if it breaks below the short-term moving averages (such as the cross position of EMA5 and EMA10), it may enter a deeper adjustment area.
• Market Sentiment and Institutional Dynamics:
  The macro environment and policy news will continue to have a significant impact on market sentiment. If institutional funds continue to flow out, it may exacerbate volatility in the short term.
• Risk Control:
  Given the current market volatility, investors are advised to implement strict stop-losses, control their positions, and pay attention to subsequent macro data and regulatory dynamics to respond promptly to market changes.

Overall, while the ultra-long-term trend for ETH remains optimistic, the short-term risks are high. It is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see and cautious approach, waiting for market sentiment to recover before making further moves.

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