Recently, the wave of hedge funds selling BTC may be nearing its end. In the past few weeks, both financing rates and benchmark rates have declined, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) BTC open interest has significantly decreased. The market's selling pressure has now largely exhausted, and BTC is in a consolidation phase.

The Federal Reserve Becomes a Key Factor in BTC's Direction

The process of BTC reaching its peak began with stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data in early December 2024, which initially weakened the momentum of altcoins. Subsequently, at the hawkish Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting in mid-December, BTC reached its peak. Although BTC attempted to rebound again before Trump's inauguration, the collapse of the Trump meme coin launched a few days earlier led to a retreat in the entire meme coin bull market. This series of events resulted in the formation of peaks for altcoins, BTC, and meme coins, pushing BTC into its current consolidation phase. The Federal Reserve has now become a key factor in determining whether BTC will break out of this range or face a deeper correction.

Although this week's Federal Reserve meeting may not be gentle enough to drive a significant rebound in BTC and altcoins, it does mark a slight shift. Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Reserve will "ignore" the recent rise in inflation expectations and does not believe that Trump's tariffs will lead to sustained high inflation. The Federal Reserve will take a wait-and-see approach rather than respond to these inflationary pressures by raising interest rates. While growth expectations have been downgraded, the Federal Reserve will tolerate temporary inflation risks. Combined with a slowdown in quantitative tightening, the tone of this meeting can be interpreted as mildly dovish.

BTC Whales Become the Dominant Group in the Market, Increasing BTC's Structural Resilience

Since Trump's election in November 2024, a clear trend has emerged: wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC (worth approximately $8 million to $80 million) have become the dominant group. This may reflect family offices and wealth management institutions accumulating BTC for the long term, especially in the context of increased regulatory clarity. This structural shift is one of the key reasons we no longer expect extreme scenarios of 70-80% drawdowns seen in past BTC cycles.

In the past three weeks, BTC's price has remained below its 21-week moving average. Combining the 21-week moving average with short-term holder metrics, $90,000 can be seen as a critical turning point that may determine whether BTC continues in a bull market or enters a bear market.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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