Today's homework is not very easy to write. Since the closing of the US stock market in Beijing time, the price of Bitcoin has been rising continuously, and the increase before today's US stock market closed is quite good. Almost at the same time, US stock index futures are also rising. However, the rise of Bitcoin is not an independent trend; it is driven by information that emerged around four o'clock in the morning, leading to a simultaneous rise in the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
During this time period, there have been quite a few events. Overall, the possibility of avoiding a government shutdown seems greater. Of course, whether this is the case is not that important; what matters is whether this rise is a rebound or a reversal. In the short term, the most influential factor on sentiment will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next Thursday morning. The dot plot and Powell's speech are highly anticipated.
The dot plot mainly focuses on two key points: the number of rate cuts in 2025 and the number of rate cuts in 2026. The most important is the number for 2025, with the market currently expecting three cuts. We will see what expectations the Federal Reserve provides. Additionally, whether there is an expectation to stop balance sheet reduction and explanations for economic recession will also be important. Of course, there will definitely be questions about tariffs, which could impact the market.
Moreover, the Japanese interest rate should not be adjusted next Wednesday, so there is no need to worry too much about Japan's rate hike. The "decisive battle" in the first quarter should be on the 20th.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, in the last 24 hours, as the price of $BTC has risen, the turnover rate has shown a significant decline. As mentioned in recent days, the participants in the turnover are still mainly short-term investors, especially those who have been bottom-fishing in recent days, who are the main force in turnover. Even investors with costs above $90,000 have rarely participated in turnover; the washout in this range has progressed quite well.
The number of high-position investors who have chosen to exit due to panic is indeed decreasing, and as this group of investors diminishes, the selling pressure is gradually easing. However, this may change again after this month's interest rate meeting. If there are explosive bearish viewpoints from the meeting, this group of investors may likely sell again.
But from the current perspective, there has not been a large-scale turnover between $93,000 and $98,000, and this group of investors has become relatively stable, providing good support for the price.
Starting tomorrow, it will be another two-day weekend, which is inherently a time of low liquidity and prone to unexpected events. However, looking at today's sentiment, it is still quite good, and I hope we can quietly get through the weekend.
Data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing
This post is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
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