The nearly 20-day range-bound fluctuation finally broke out this Monday, with bears achieving a decisive victory.

After the breakout, the bears accelerated their decline, effectively breaking through the daily support level of 91,500 that had held for nearly four months, with a drop of over 14,000 points for three consecutive trading days.

Yesterday, even the last line of defense for the bulls at 86,000 was breached, with the price dropping to around 82,000; as a result, the bears have taken full control of the situation!

The only thing that needs to be confirmed now is whether the breach of the 86,000 support signal is genuine or not! If there is an effective rebound today and the 86,000 daily line turns bullish, it would mean that yesterday's breakdown was just a false break, and the bears would not be able to create further breakdowns; however, if the decline continues today and 86,000 fails again, the market will enter a vacuum area below, and the daily line may drop below the 80,000 mark down to 77,000, completely shifting the trend to bearish.

In my view, for the bulls to truly reverse the situation, the prerequisite is to successfully stabilize at the watershed of 91,500 while rebounding; after the excessive drop in the past two days, there is a certain technical demand for rebound repair, but if the rebound does not break 91,500, it is highly likely that there will be a second drop to break the lows.

My guess is that the 86,000 level will either consolidate in a range for adjustment over the next two days or rebound to 90,000 or even 91,000 before declining; even if 86,000 cannot be held today, it is unlikely to directly plummet below 80,000, as a continuous drop of over 20,000 points is very low probability without extreme news impact.

Therefore, if there is another retest of 82,000-83,000 during the day, a small to medium-term long position can be set up looking towards 90,000; Ethereum can also be followed in the 2,250-2,300 range, targeting 2,600-2,800!

On the short term, a rebound near 87,000 can be shorted, looking down to 85,000-84,000!

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