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Bitcoin and Ethereum Daily Market Analysis and Trading Strategy (Updated at 15:00)

1. In-depth Technical Analysis of Bitcoin

1. Daily Chart Pattern
   • For three consecutive days, Bitcoin has been blocked by the MA60 (98,600) forming a critical support and resistance line. This line, along with the middle band of the weekly Bollinger Bands (98,400), creates a resonant pressure zone.
   • The MACD lines are flat below the zero axis, and the KDJ lines are repeatedly converging around the 50 midline, indicating that the market is in a window of directional choice. If it effectively breaks through 98,600, it may open an upward channel to 102,000 within the week.
   • The key defensive zone below is located at 94,000-95,000 (Fibonacci 38.2% + Daily EMA30), where three effective rebounds have formed in the past two weeks.

2. Short-term Trading Signals
   • The 4-hour chart shows a contracting triangle pattern, with MA60 (97,000) and MA256 (97,200) forming dual resistance. If it fails to stabilize above 96,800 during the Asian session, it will strengthen bearish momentum.
   • A top divergence signal appears on the 1-hour chart: when the price tests the 97,200 resistance three times, the RSI indicator shows a downward shift in highs, indicating a potential pullback demand during the European session.
   • Volume Monitoring: After a rapid drop below 96,000 during the New York session yesterday, a quick rebound occurred, showing intense competition between bulls and bears at critical levels.

Trading Strategy
• Short Position: Open a light position at the current price of 97,200, add to the position if it rebounds to 98,000 (upper edge of the daily supply zone), set a stop loss at 98,800 (1% above the previous high), target 96,000 (4-hour EMA120), 94,800 (daily demand zone).
• Long Position: Gradually build a position below 95,000, closely monitor the defense at 94,300 (weekly support and resistance line), set a stop loss at 93,800, and if it breaks through 97,200, chase long to 99,500.

2. Dynamic Analysis of Ethereum and Correlation Logic

1. Trend Structure Analysis
   • The daily EMA5/10 golden cross support is effective, and after stabilizing above 2,670, a short-term upward channel has formed, with strong resistance in the 2,780-2,820 range (previous high + weekly MA60).
   • The 4-hour MACD shows a decrease in the red momentum bars, and attention should be paid to the support strength at the 2,700 integer level; if it fails, it may pull back to 2,620 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level).
   • On-chain data warning: The ETH inventory on exchanges has dropped to an 18-month low, but the perpetual contract funding rate has turned negative, indicating a potential short-term pullback demand.

2. Bitcoin Correlation Observation
   • The ETH/BTC exchange rate remains above the critical level of 0.055, indicating a warming risk appetite in the altcoin market. If Bitcoin stabilizes at 96,000, Ethereum is likely to be the first to challenge the 2,800 resistance zone.
   • Beware of fluctuations at the US stock market opening: The Nasdaq futures are currently down 0.3%; if tech stocks pull back, it may suppress sentiment in the crypto market.

Trading Strategy
• Short Position: Open a light short position at the current price of 2,730, add to the position if it rebounds to 2,780 (4-hour supply zone), set a stop loss at 2,825, target down to 2,680 (1-hour EMA200), 2,620 (daily defense center).
• Long Position: Gradually build a position in the 2,650-2,670 range, closely monitor the support at the 2,600 integer level, set a stop loss at 2,580, and if it breaks through 2,750, chase long to 2,820.

3. Key Event Alerts for the Day

1. 18:00 Speech by Federal Reserve officials (focus on comments regarding the balance sheet reduction process)

2. 20:30 Release of US PPI data (expected 2.5%, previous value 2.2%)

3. 22:00 Quarterly contract rollover in the crypto derivatives market (beware of increased volatility)

Risk Warning
• It is recommended to keep positions below 30%. If Bitcoin breaks through 98,800 or Ethereum falls below 2,620, strict stop losses are required.
• If the evening data triggers unusual movements in the US dollar index, it may trigger a chain reaction in algorithmic trading programs.

(This analysis is based on Coinbase spot prices; contract traders should be aware of basis risk.)

Three-dimensional Trading Thinking
• Conservative: Use BTC/ETH hedging strategies to exploit the volatility difference for arbitrage opportunities.
• Aggressive: Focus on the market after breaking through 98,800 for the CME gap-filling trend (target at 101,500).
• Hedging Advice: Miners can gradually establish quarterly short hedges above 98,000.

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This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and solutions can find the Coin Victory Group online. We will continue to monitor market dynamics and update analysis and trading strategies in a timely manner. Thank you for your attention and support. Mainly focused on contract trading for BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT, specializing in styles, mobile lock-up strategies around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend trades, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.

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