The information, opinions, and judgments regarding the market, projects, currencies, etc., mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
This week, BTC opened at $101,217.78 and closed at $102,563.00, rising 1.34% over the week with a volatility of 9.82%, once again attacking the $90,000 to $108,000 range, with trading volume moderately increasing.
The decisive U.S. President Trump began to issue directives intensively this week, boosting trading sentiment and driving BTC to reach an all-time high.
However, the yen's interest rate hike, along with traders' concerns about the potential chaos from interest rate hike expectations and Trump's policies, means that the U.S. stock and crypto markets have yet to establish new trends and trading logic.
BTC and the altcoin representative Sol continue to outperform the Nasdaq, but BTC's complete breakout from the $90,000 to $108,000 range still awaits the gradual establishment of Trump's 2.0 trading logic and further reduction of macroeconomic uncertainties.
Macroeconomic and Financial Data
On January 20, Eastern Time, Trump was sworn in, setting a record for the most executive orders signed on the first day of a U.S. president's term.
The parts involving crypto assets include—establishing the development of cryptocurrencies as a priority; forming a cryptocurrency task force responsible for proposing new digital asset regulatory frameworks and exploring the possibility of establishing a national cryptocurrency reserve; and pardoning Ross Ulbricht, who established the "Silk Road" for the large-scale use of BTC.
In addition, prior to the inauguration, the Trump couple released a MEME coin, leaving no doubt about Trump's determination to act in the cryptocurrency field. This is why BTC can consolidate at high levels and continuously attempt new highs in a macroeconomic environment filled with uncertainties. The $90,000 to $108,000 range can be seen as pricing for Trump's crypto-friendly policies, and after this pricing is completed, the subsequent upward momentum for BTC remains unclear.
On January 24, the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike to 0.50%, making this the only major economy among the world's top four economies to raise rates against the trend. Although this was expected, the rate hike still triggered market concerns about the loss of liquidity.
On January 23, Trump publicly called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, while he had not made many comments on tariffs before and after this. This caused the dollar to plummet, closing at 107.45 on Friday. Gold rose for five consecutive days, closing at $2,770.89 per ounce, nearing historical highs.
Long-term and short-term government bonds remained relatively stable, with little fluctuation.
In the U.S. stock market, the Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P 500 rose by 1.65%, 2.15%, and 1.74%, respectively, all approaching historical highs. In contrast, BTC reached an all-time high but faced selling over the weekend.
Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF
With the rebound in U.S. stocks, funds continued to flow into the crypto market through the BTC Spot ETF channel, with a total inflow of $1.755 billion for the week.
The stablecoin channel performed even better, with a total inflow of $5.381 billion for the week. USDT saw an outflow of $975 million, while USDC had an inflow of $4.406 billion.
The total funds remaining in major global cryptocurrency exchanges stood at $46.368 billion, still at historical highs.
In terms of capital supply, liquidity is not lacking at the moment, but funds have yet to form a strong buying force and are instead standing by, reflecting traders' cautious attitude in the face of market uncertainties.
Selling Pressure and Sell-offs
In terms of selling pressure, both long and short positions sold a total of 182,600 coins, slightly down from last week, maintaining a normal level. Meanwhile, the trading volume on exchanges slightly increased during the same period, indicating that the short position group still has some divergence regarding the market.
Cycle Indicators
According to the eMerge engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase.
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by cryptocurrency investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and investments in the crypto secondary market, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competencies, aiming to participate in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting the benefits of blockchain and crypto assets for humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
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