Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Recently, there hasn't been much substantial content to discuss regarding the market. Today, I will briefly summarize my thoughts on Bitcoin after the New Year. The crash on February 3rd shattered the confidence of the bulls. Coupled with various uncertainties, the entire market is in a state of panic.

I recall the bear market before the halving, which should have been a good time to pick up cheap chips, but this round of the market has been completely distorted by capital and politics. From the moment the Trump family issued their coin, I knew things were going south. Bitcoin has become a solo act, while Ethereum and various altcoins are basically stagnant, creating a sense of dissonance in the entire market.

If the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in May or June, there may be hope for the market to recover. A rate cut in March is basically out of the question, and for the next two to three months, it is highly likely that we will continue to see a downward trend with fluctuations. Those who can't hold on will have to cut losses or run. Although the overall spot market hasn't lost money yet, the significant profit retracement is still uncomfortable. Without faith, it's impossible to continue.

If the market is truly over, then it's time to admit defeat and rest, waiting for the next opportunity. But now, there are positive developments every day: several states in the U.S. are submitting BTC as a strategic reserve, the SEC is signaling reforms, and the crypto czar is making calls…

In the past, any one of these news items could have sent Bitcoin soaring, but now, Bitcoin barely fluctuates by 500 points, and the market feels lifeless. The reason is simple: there is no capital and no liquidity.

In a high-interest-rate market, capital simply cannot flow in. Last year, the market could still rise because everyone expected rate cuts to come quickly. Now, with the December meeting directly cutting to two rate cuts, the willingness for capital to enter has dropped to freezing point. This is also why even a slight breeze can cause Bitcoin to plummet.

The market is currently stagnant; giving up might mean it could soar tomorrow. Holding on, however, raises fears of prolonged stagnation. This kind of dead time usually lasts eight months; let's hope this time it won't be too long.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 98600

Second Resistance Level: 97500

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 96100

Second Support Level: 94500

Today's Suggestions:

After failing to break through the 100K resistance, Bitcoin is showing an overall downward trend. In the short term, we can refine the support and resistance levels to respond accordingly. If a descending wedge pattern forms, it may briefly decline before breaking the upper trend line at the end of the pattern, at which point we can consider switching to a bullish outlook.

If it breaks through 97.5K, the short-term upward trend can still be maintained. During the upward process, we can set the 98.6K~99K range as a strong resistance area and consider the possibility of a market adjustment.

The probability of a significant rebound back to 100K at this stage is low; it is more likely to first adjust in the 99K~100K pressure zone before testing the previous high. Therefore, we can still maintain a rebound perspective in the short term and pay attention to the trading volume when breaking through 97.5K.

A double bottom pattern has formed around 96.1K, which is also a short-term low. If it can hold above the previous low, it may further stabilize as support. If the price falls back to 96.1K again, the downward expectation will increase, so we need to pay attention to the fluctuations within the descending wedge pattern. If the price closes above 96.1K within the downward range, we can consider this area as a short-term buying opportunity.

2.6 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Light long in the 94000-94500 range. Target: 96100-97500

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 98600-99000 range. Target: 97500-96100. If the bulls are strong, consider shorting directly at 102500-103000. Target: 101000-100000.

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). Master Chen is the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with quality experience projects like community live broadcasts!

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