The real QT of the Federal Reserve occurred from the end of 2021 to the end of 2022. From this point, overall liquidity remained relatively stable - the main contribution to this was that onRRP largely offset the decline in the Fed's total assets.

Currently, onRRP has basically reached its limit, but there is still TGA that can be released to continue offsetting the Fed's total assets.

After TGA reaches its limit in the U.S. or after the U.S. debt ceiling is resolved, if the Federal Reserve continues QT, it means that overall market liquidity will decline - this indicates a peak phase.

The next key point is when the Fed will stop QT, which is something to closely monitor in the next FOMC meeting. The current assumption is that this time will not be too soon.

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