The changes in global liquidity are evident, and BTC may enter a consolidation phase. There is evidence that liquidity trends typically influence BTC's price movements about 13 weeks in advance.

The hawkish tone of the FOMC meeting may suppress BTC's upward trend

Since the FOMC meeting in December 2024, the inflow of funds into BTC ETFs has stabilized, maintaining a record peak of $35.9 billion. However, as the Federal Reserve becomes increasingly hawkish, venture capital may hesitate to further invest in these ETFs until monetary policy becomes clearer. Although the market initially dismissed the hawkish tone of the December FOMC meeting, an analysis of BTC's historical performance suggests that such hawkish statements may limit BTC's rise until the Fed signals a shift to a more dovish stance.

While many attribute the rise in BTC prices in 2024 to the launch of ETFs, it may be more closely related to changes in the Fed's policy. The rise in 2024 began when Fed Chairman Powell adopted a more dovish stance at the end of January 2024. This coincided with BTC's upward momentum, but at the March FOMC meeting, Powell's stance on when the Fed would begin to cut interest rates became less clear, and this uncertainty may have led to the subsequent six months of consolidation, making the next steps heavily reliant on the Fed's pivot to dovish in September.

Although Trump's policy stance has contributed to the rise of cryptocurrencies, it cannot be ruled out that the Fed's hawkish position may limit the upside potential. Currently, the market's downside risk appears limited, but proactive risk management can help mitigate risks.

Low implied volatility makes prudent use of options a way to maintain market exposure while managing risk

Currently, due to low implied volatility, options present an attractive opportunity. Call options are relatively inexpensive, allowing traders to capitalize on potential upward movements. Alternatively, traders can use put options to protect substantial BTC profits at a low cost. Given the current uncertain outlook, utilizing options is a prudent way for traders to manage risk while maintaining exposure to market volatility.

The above views are derived from Matrix on Target, Contact Us_ for the complete report from Matrix on Target._

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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