I saw this news yesterday and even analyzed it with several friends. I originally planned to discuss it yesterday, but my computer was not cooperating last night, so it got delayed until now. I noticed that many friends have not paid attention to this aspect of the information, so I will first mention a few things worth noting.

First: @Backpack has acquired FTX EU (European station) for $32.7 million. Is this price high or not? By January 2022, the valuation of the main FTX platform was $32 billion, and after bankruptcy, the valuation will definitely drop significantly. However, the European station focuses on crypto derivatives and compliant services for EU users, and contract users in Europe account for about 25% to 30% of the global total. This market is still quite large.

The former represents having a license, as it has indeed obtained a MiFID II license issued by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). This license allows Backpack to conduct certain forms of derivative trading, such as contracts, options, perpetual contracts, etc. This license is also the only one that can legally conduct contract and derivative business in EU member states. Financial institutions like Goldman Sachs also hold this type of license, and in the future, it is very likely to open up channels for purchasing stocks with digital currencies in Europe, becoming a configuration for RWA assets.

I roughly checked, and the estimated valuation of FTX Europe should be over $300 million. However, there is a key point here: the debts owed by the European station must be repaid. Although the total amount has never been disclosed, it is estimated to be over $100 million, so this amount also needs to be covered by the acquirer. Therefore, Backpack's total expenditure for the acquisition should exceed $100 million.

Second: The compensation for the main FTX platform is estimated to be around $14.5 billion to $16.3 billion, which has already started on January 3. The first batch of payments will be made within 60 days after the effective date, prioritizing claims of $50,000 or less. So how much money is there in this part?

According to bankruptcy documents, FTX's global user base exceeds 1 million. Assuming that about 60%-80% of the customers are small creditors (i.e., claims of $50,000 or less), the average claim amount for small creditors may be between $1,000 and $5,000. If about 600,000 to 800,000 customers are small creditors, with an average claim amount of $3,000 per person, the total amount = 600,000 to 800,000 × $3,000 ≈ $1.8 billion to $2.4 billion.

Therefore, this part of the funds will be gradually distributed to small creditors between January 3 and March 3, which means that the liquidity in the cryptocurrency market will increase by nearly $2 billion in the first quarter of 2025. I don't know if all of this money will re-enter the market, but even if half of it does, it is still a significant amount, corresponding to the optimistic trend we often talk about for the first quarter.

Moreover, Backpack's compensation will also be completed in the first quarter because Backpack needs to be operational before it can go live, with the expected launch time being in the first quarter, so liquidity will continue to increase in the first quarter. This is definitely a good thing for the market, especially for altcoins. Additionally, Backpack's contracts will open in a short time, which can stimulate liquidity in the market.

Third: We have seen the court materials and know that the significant rise during the 2021 bull market was closely related to Alameda Research and 3AC's long #Bitcoin strategy. The core team of Backpack itself consists of former core employees of FTX, including CEO Armani Ferrante, who has ample experience at FTX. Of course, they have also learned many lessons, and this can be seen as FTX's smaller version re-entering the market with previous experience and licenses, which is also a fresh force for the market.

So from the overall situation, my personal view is that Backpack's acquisition is a positive development for the industry and for liquidity, and it is worth paying attention to.

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