In my personal opinion, by 2025, we should not expect QE anymore; it is almost completely impossible. The only hope is if a black swan event or economic recession occurs in 2025, leading to a significant market pullback, prompting the Federal Reserve to quickly cut interest rates and initiate QE when rates return to a low point (0.25%) or zero. If the economy remains stable, I even doubt that there will be QE in 2026, or even throughout this cycle.

I also believe that quantitative tightening will not occur in 2025; it would be good enough if we could just stop the balance sheet reduction, of course, provided that there are no economic issues. However, the better the economy, the more likely inflation will fluctuate. If the Federal Reserve stubbornly clings to 2%, it might really take until 2027.

This is also one of the reasons why I think we should start paying attention in Q1 2025, or rather from March onwards.

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