Panic has set in; today's homework theme should be panic. At least up to now, the BTC turnover rate I have seen should be the highest in recent times, and from the details of the URPD, it can be seen that the exits are mainly concentrated among investors currently at a loss and with holding costs between $40,000 and $66,000. As for the reason for the panic, I think it should no longer be about the Federal Reserve's interest rates, nor could it be about the resolved shutdown issue.

So, it is highly likely a pre-Christmas sell-off. Today is the second-to-last working day before Christmas, and tomorrow, Christmas Eve, the market will close early, so some investors may be worried that due to liquidity or emotional issues, there could be a deeper decline during Christmas. Therefore, a safe plan is to exit first and then look for opportunities to buy the dip before the elections, which is also a good strategy.

The upcoming trend will likely be dominated by emotions due to reduced liquidity, and the focus may still be on the Asian market, as I mentioned before. If the Asian market can stabilize, the U.S. market should not have too many surprises after tomorrow. However, if the Asian market is also conveying panic, this Christmas may not be peaceful.

Personally, I will place a #BTC at the $89,000 position. I don't know if I will be able to catch it or if it will continue to drop; I can only say to buy more as it falls to lower the average price. This way, after the power transition, the difficulty can be reduced. From the latest data I saw today, due to panic, the support level has started to adjust. However, since this is caused by short-term investors, I don't plan to change it for now; I will wait a few days and see if it stabilizes before recalculating the support level.

Many friends say that #Bitcoin has dropped today, but #ETH and altcoins not only did not follow the drop but instead rose. Is it the beginning of altcoin season? Is the overflow of funds from BTC starting to enter altcoins, or are altcoins starting to siphon off BTC?

My consistent view is that altcoin season will definitely come; it's just that the time hasn't arrived yet. I have been saying this for about a month now, and I have used this chart for a long time, but I do not believe that now is the time for altcoin season to start. At least during the decline of BTC, there will not be too much capital flowing into altcoins. At this stage, even if there is overflow capital coming out of BTC, it may not necessarily flow into altcoins. Do you remember the weekend theory I talked about two weeks ago? It is that when liquidity is low, if the sentiment is bullish, then the price trend will be good. Personally, I lean towards the idea that even if altcoins rise during the Christmas period, it may not be the true start of altcoin season.

Now, to say that it is a peak of sentiment is a bit unreasonable. When BTC is dropping due to panic, I am somewhat skeptical about funds running to altcoins for safety. Of course, I still believe that altcoin season will definitely start, but more likely during periods of heightened sentiment. BTC may not surge, but it absolutely should not happen during times of investor panic.

The data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

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