Russia is estimated to be unable to hold on any longer.

Russia is experiencing inflation at an annual rate of 8.6%. There are three estimated reasons for this inflation. One is similar to the situation in the U.S. in 2022, where "money was given to the poor." Due to the war, there is a need to conscript soldiers, and military production has intensified, leading to an increase in employment rates, with ordinary people receiving a larger share of the economic pie. The unemployment rate is currently only 2.3%—can you imagine? Before the pandemic, the lowest in the U.S. was only about 3.5%.

The second reason is currency devaluation. On one hand, this is due to the U.S. raising interest rates; on the other hand, Russia needs to import goods while earning less foreign exchange from exports, forcing it to print more money, as can be seen from M2. This is not a good sign; it has a bit of the flavor of Chiang Kai-shek supporting the military with gold yuan notes. Currency devaluation means that imported goods become more expensive.

The third reason is a labor shortage. An unemployment rate of 2.3% is definitely too low, indicating a severe lack of workers. However, it seems they have not yet started to bring in a large number of external laborers, as the process for work visas is cumbersome. So, it can be said that the old Russians are still struggling with their economy; they are not as good as Biden, who has directly opened the borders. 😂

Based on this, perhaps Russia is indeed waiting for Trump to come to power to negotiate peace, ultimately just looking at where to establish actual control and the promise not to join NATO.

From the perspective of who can endure longer, it feels like Russia is struggling to hold on. Therefore, the issue of not joining NATO seems unlikely, but Russia probably wouldn't want to give back the territory it has taken; the old Russians have always been about taking and not giving back.

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