The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, in line with expectations.
The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates two expected rate cuts in 2025 (four were expected in September). Whether it's a case of good news turning into bad or a reduction in the expected number of rate cuts next year, the market has already seen signs of early exits. After reaching a new high, the market did not show significant fluctuations, further indicating that early exits are happening. Yesterday's analysis mentioned that funds continue to flow in, but the price increase has not been very strong. On the 16th, it was also stated that the price must significantly deviate from the current level, so caution is needed.
Yesterday, it was noted that BTC touched the upper edge of the maintained upward channel, testing the support at 103333 and 0.382. This is a key area for support and resistance exchange. Last night, it fell below the daily line, resulting in a false breakout and a drop back. The upward channel is likely to break down. The Spring Festival red envelope market in 2025 is still worth looking forward to, and we are waiting for the best opportunity to enter.
Bitcoin
The market fell back below 103333, and the previous breakout of the ascending triangle at 102000 failed, resulting in a false breakout. The daily upward channel support is no longer holding. This situation is very similar to what we discussed about the 2023 surge to 49000 and the subsequent drop. There’s not much more to say here; if interested, you can check previous articles.
The daily MACD diverged, and after the RSI broke through, it fell back. The first target for the decline is 90400, and the second target is 83500—85000, which also presents opportunities for phased entry later. In the short term, touching the lower channel does not rule out a rebound, but if it cannot break above 102000 and 103333, it remains bearish.
Support: Pressure:
Ethereum
Ethereum reached a new high and then fell back. Initially, we expected Ethereum to make a third attempt at the phase high, but it may also be dragged down by Bitcoin. The key support now is 3509; if it breaks down, it will form an M-top, opening up space for a decline. The first target is 3255, and the second target is 3000. If it can return above 2800 and hold, it presents a bold opportunity to enter.
SOL
The reminder remains that the daily line is maintaining a downward channel. Without breaking the channel, we can only view it as bearish. 203 has already broken down; we need to see if 160—175 can support a rebound.
Support: Pressure:
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it is updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, we aim to win global investment opportunities. Public account: Trading Prince Fusu
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