This Space theme includes Alpha investment opportunities and industry information acquisition, the use of AI tools, and analysis of market cycles and popular tracks. There are three guests attending this Space: Kevin, the Chief Business Officer of Gate.io, Justin (CaptainZ), the head of Gametaverse research, and independent researcher NingNing.
Which fields will see an explosion next?
Kevin: Everyone likes Memecoins, but many users outside the circle cannot understand the utility of Memecoins. In fact, the concept of a meme did not start with Memecoins or the internet. A meme is a great concept; as long as everyone shares that culture or has a common memory point, it can be a meme. I cannot predict which Memecoin will transcend cycles, but I believe this sector will definitely remain, just like there are some Meme Stocks in the stock market. Additionally, I personally really enjoy games, and I think there are many applications for AI in gaming, which is also a very promising sector.
Justin: We are currently in a bull market cycle, and from the perspective of coin prices, I believe all sectors should rise over the next three to five months, but there will be some standout sectors. Personally, I think the opportunities are greater in the AI Agent, Meme, and deSci sectors.
NingNing: Actually, the previous wave of market activity was a bit missed; no one expected, or at least I didn't expect, that the strongest performers would be those old altcoins, like XRP, which many new investors or newcomers may not have even heard of, yet they performed very well. However, I believe that after this intense correction, the entire market will see a reallocation of sectors and gradually switch. I am particularly optimistic about the native forms of our crypto circle, mainly in two areas: one is chain abstraction, and the other is AI Agents. Of course, many people play with AI Agents as if they are memes, such as ai16z, ELISA, and also GOAT, ACT. But now it seems that this is changing; recently, when Solana held a hackathon, they have started to transform into projects with development teams that are continuously iterating.
My personal judgment is that this year's AI Agents are not a bull market but rather the early emergence of a new trend. Next year, when OpenAI releases commercial AI Agents, it will trigger a wave of growth opportunities similar to the DeFi Summer, so I think this area is definitely worth watching. The other is chain abstraction, as there will be significant changes in regulatory policies after Trump takes office, and this chain abstraction will completely change our current product paradigm. Many super financial apps built on the Web 3 stack may obtain some licenses, allowing them to expand the market to C financial consumers in the U.S., which will also bring about dramatic growth opportunities.
The industry generates massive amounts of information every day. How do you usually acquire information and filter potential targets and projects?
Kevin: Take the Meme sector as an example; sometimes I see a Memecoin but don't realize it has already appeared, and I even miss the opportunity to buy at the bottom on some trading platforms. Sometimes, even if I see a token, I don't understand its background, making it difficult to judge whether it's worth investing in.
I think people in the crypto circle generally have a problem: we often only focus on internal matters and pay little attention to information outside the crypto circle. Just like NingNing mentioned about the development of AI, such as the situation with OpenAI, and even the emergence of some products, they may not be directly related to a certain coin's cycle, but they will impact the entire ecosystem. Also, for some overseas memes, we sometimes only see that a Memecoin has launched but do not understand its background and team situation, and we may not even know why it is popular. These are all areas we need to pay attention to.
As for acquiring information within the crypto circle, platforms like CMC or monthly reports from various platforms are common channels that everyone should be familiar with. However, I suggest that everyone should pay more attention to information outside the crypto circle to broaden their horizons and better grasp market dynamics and potential opportunities.
Justin: I wake up at 5 a.m. every day, and the reason I choose this time is that potential projects are more likely to emerge between 5 a.m. and 8 a.m. I start monitoring the market and scanning the chain during this time. Scanning the chain means using tools like GMGN to set filtering conditions; for example, I usually set it to only focus on projects with a market cap above 2 million. Projects that meet the criteria will display their website, Twitter, and other information. If there is no Twitter, I skip it. If there is a Twitter, I will click in to carefully check the project's situation and understand what it is doing. Then I will also search on Telegram; I have joined many groups to see if anyone is discussing this project. At the same time, I will search for the project's contract address and name on Twitter to see if any bloggers are discussing it, thus determining the narrative angle of the project and understanding whether there are any major KOLs or institutions backing it, and then check its current market cap to decide whether to buy. This process usually lasts until around 7 a.m.
In terms of information acquisition channels, Twitter is the most important. Secondly, I also browse industry media like Odaily, Foresight, and律动 to see if there are any in-depth articles; if there are, I will read them carefully. I don't pay much attention to group messages because I am in many groups, and the messages are cluttered. I only look for discussions about a specific project when needed.
This relates to the new sectors I focus on, such as AI agents and Memes, where new assets are constantly emerging, so the information I acquire is often quite new, even before other KOLs or retail investors have discovered it.
In summary, for the sectors I focus on, Twitter is my main channel for acquiring information, and every time I capture a "golden dog" project, it is the result of in-depth research on the project, not something easily obtained.
NingNing: My thinking is quite similar to Captain's. When I was previously obsessed with trading Memes, I also scanned the chain. However, I rely more on the information from my group friends, who have various unique information channels and can discover interesting project ideas early on. This includes golden dog projects, but there are also many pitfalls. We follow a principle: regardless of success or failure, this is quite normal. Currently, there is a problem in discovering information: whether it's the Twitter information stream or the information provided by tools like GMGN, the volume of information is quite overwhelming for early project screening. We may need to integrate various data and information; for example, after seeing certain data, we also need to combine it with tools like Bubble or more professional ones like Akham to assist in judgment. The opportunities for golden dog projects are often fleeting; if you are even a minute or two late, you may miss the best time window to get in. Therefore, I think there is still room for iteration and improvement in this area to better meet everyone's needs in on-chain PVP.
What unique features does Gate's latest AI product include?
Kevin: Now I want to talk from a personal perspective rather than as the Chief Business Officer of Gate. I worked in banking for over ten years, and when I entered the banking industry in 2005, relevant trading in the Asia region was just beginning. By 2015, I attempted to integrate AI into trading, but it was unsuccessful due to various factors. However, now seeing the applications I once hoped for in the crypto circle is quite moving. Next, let's talk about the applications of AI, which mainly have three directions. First is coin selection. Teacher Qin also mentioned how to choose in the market. I go to bed quite late, around 2 a.m., and I don't have time to pay attention to that information, but the current coin selection AI is impressive; it can not only filter out coins but also explain the reasons for the selection, avoiding situations where you cannot buy at the bottom due to delayed market conditions.
Secondly, there is the deep education robot, also known as Ultra AI. It can not only provide trading choices but also present backtesting results, allowing users to choose trading strategies based on their risk tolerance. In fact, it uses AI to process past trading experiences and provide references for users.
Finally, considering the large amount of information and numerous materials today, users find it difficult to read all the content. For example, when a user selects Bitcoin and presses a button, the AI can provide a recent summary about Bitcoin, such as why it dropped yesterday. For other articles or live broadcasts (like our one-hour live broadcast today), if users don't have time to watch, the AI can also provide a text summary, making it easier for users to quickly understand key information.
These three directions of AI applications aim to help crypto users better utilize information for investment decisions in a time of overwhelming information and numerous coins.
When can we experience these products?
Kevin: If you have a Gate account, you can now see the relevant features. This is not a buying or selling suggestion, but there are some free contents available on the Gate platform, such as news and AI-generated summaries of different articles or coins. You can try out these features first to see if they are useful, and then provide us with feedback on your experience so that we can optimize the AI features based on that feedback.
After a project is launched, how do you judge its future trends based on fundamentals and news?
Justin: If a coin has already launched on an exchange, I will definitely pay attention to its K-line situation. In terms of fundamental information, I mainly look at news from industry media, such as Odaily and Foresight. As mentioned earlier, I browse all the content on the homepage of industry media every day to find articles that interest me and then conduct in-depth research.
NingNing: When judging the trend of a specific coin, I currently rely on two aspects for obtaining fundamental and news changes worth paying attention to. One is vertical media, such as Odaily; the other is Twitter information. Regarding fundamentals, I believe that many times it is necessary to check the project's original documents. I usually use Claude to help me read and understand these documents. I interact with Claude, and through multiple exchanges, it can outline a relatively clear picture of the project's fundamentals, helping me quickly understand the project's fundamental situation.
Are there any indicator tools to determine the industry's cycle and turning points?
Kevin: In the crypto circle, we pay attention to certain specific indicators. For example, we keep an eye on the market cycles in the U.S. In fact, we discussed this at the beginning of this year, but we didn't delve deeply into it; perhaps next year we will have a clearer view. This is not only related to the flow of funds in the crypto circle but also affects other financial markets, such as the stock and bond markets, so this type of information is very useful. Personally, I also pay attention to some micro indicators, among which the "Fear and Greed Index" is particularly interesting to me. The name of this index is quite apt; it reflects market sentiment. When the index shows that the market is in a state of greed, it is actually not a good sign, indicating that the market may be overheating; conversely, when in a state of fear, people often hesitate to buy. For instance, two years ago, when Bitcoin's price was over ten thousand, many people were afraid to buy due to the market downturn, and later Bitcoin dropped to 14,000 or even lower. But the situation is different now; the market is performing well, and many people who do not understand the crypto circle are starting to enter, even our family members are asking how to buy Bitcoin. However, as Justin and NingNing mentioned earlier, these people lack experience in analyzing information and investing in the crypto circle, and this blind buying state is not ideal. Therefore, the "Fear and Greed Index" serves as a warning for us, helping us better grasp market sentiment and investment timing.
Justin: In this regard, I categorize it into two types. On a macro level, I pay attention to the Federal Reserve's fiscal policy to determine whether we are currently in a tightening cycle, deflation cycle, or easing cycle, and I also keep an eye on whether there are significant supportive measures in Trump's policies. From specific indicators, I often use TradingView, focusing on two indices. One is Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC.D), which is currently around 56%. Based on experiences from previous cycles, if this ratio drops to around 40%, say 38% to 39%, I would consider the market to have reached a temporary peak. The other index I pay attention to is the market dominance of USDT (USDT.D), which is currently around 4%. If this index continues to drop to around 2%, I would feel that our industry has reached a temporary peak.
NingNing: I share many methodological similarities with Justin, especially in valuing market cycles. I even believe that events' impacts on the market are usually only short-term or even negligible. Take the recent breakthroughs in quantum computing and Microsoft's refusal to include Bitcoin on its balance sheet as examples; they may seem very specific at the moment, but in terms of long-term trends, they have almost no impact. In comparison, I focus more on intrinsic cyclical forces like monetary cycles, the U.S. economy's Merrill Lynch clock cycle, and even broader Kondratiev waves, as well as short-term seasonal effects. In various financial markets, including U.S. stocks, A-shares, and our crypto market, there are typically spring and autumn market trends every year. Of course, these trends can vary due to external cycles, such as timing, magnitude, and duration, but these two trends generally exist every year. Currently, we are in the autumn market trend. This recent correction can be attributed to many factors, such as a decline in liquidity around Christmas, profit-taking due to previous rapid increases, or various other reasons. However, I believe this does not affect the sustainability of the autumn market trend, as autumn has not yet ended. Perhaps there will be a market adjustment period around Christmas, but given that there has already been a rapid squeeze, I think the Christmas and Spring Festival markets may remain relatively strong. Moreover, the series of policy expectations introduced after Trump officially took office may lead to a more vigorous spring market trend. Therefore, at least in my opinion, it is better to adopt a right-side trading strategy and not to take profits too early.
What are the current bottlenecks of AI products? What potential variables could amplify the application of AI in the industry?
Kevin: Although AI has been very popular in the past two years, it has actually been developing for a long time. I was exposed to AI knowledge related to natural language processing when I entered university in 2001, and I used machine learning to complete the Super Mario game in 2014-2015. Now, generative AI has increased interactions between AI and ordinary people, and everyone is paying attention to AI. However, we must understand that AI is a gradual development, not something that happens overnight. From 2001 to 2015, and during the more than ten years I worked in education before that, AI has been slowly progressing. Now, people's expectations for AI are too high, just like when the Internet of Things first emerged, and everyone was debating whether Internet Explorer or Firefox was better. Now, everyone is focusing on foundational infrastructure like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's BERT. In fact, we should pay more attention to application scenarios. When AI develops to the point where it is like a mobile app, people will not care about the underlying technology as long as it works; at that time, the focus will return to applications, which is where the future opportunities for AI lie.
Justin: Since the launch of ChatGPT last year, I have been deeply researching AI directions, considering entrepreneurial and investment opportunities. Last year, there were only large language models, which had some shortcomings and were mainly used for learning, research, and translation. This year, AI agents have emerged, which are large language models with execution capabilities that can be applied across various industries after connecting to API interfaces. However, the current bottleneck of AI lies in accuracy. When using large language models last year, there was a 20-30% chance of output errors. In the financial sector, whether in market analysis or trading, errors can lead to asset losses; in the education sector, incorrect knowledge can negatively impact the knowledge system. Therefore, I hope that in the future, AI and AI agents can achieve better improvements in accuracy and can be truly applied across various industries.
NingNing: I am a heavy user of AI, and the applications of AI in the industry differ significantly from traditional fields, mainly referring to the narratives of AI's self-awareness and AI becoming an independent entity. Under the modern legal system, banks will not give AI agents independent accounts, but cryptocurrencies can create accounts for them. For example, the Elisa free framework from ai16z supports creating wallet addresses for AI in specific environments, making them independent entities with assets, although their addresses are currently mostly in privacy stages and not publicly disclosed. Additionally, regarding AI's self-awareness, phenomena like GOAT and similar "cults" may evolve into forms like AI wives in the future or connect with other systems like DID systems to form economic cycles, addressing the large-scale unemployment issues brought about by AI. Of course, this is just a personal speculation, but many stories may unfold in this field in the future.
Future goals and plans for Gate's AI products
Kevin: Regarding the specific functions of the products, I cannot list them one by one at the moment because we have a wide range of business lines, and I am not sure which function will be launched first. However, we have a clear goal: "to give innovation to the community, rather than giving the community to innovation." This means that every innovative function we develop is aimed at making each user's transaction simpler and more efficient, comprehensively enhancing the trading experience. We will not innovate for the sake of innovation or simply use AI for the sake of using AI; this aligns with Gate's original concept of "Gateway to Crypto," always adhering to the principle of user priority, first focusing on optimizing the user experience to the best, and then integrating the corresponding technology. This is the next goal for our product functions.
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