Master Discusses Hot Topics:

The new week has just begun, and the morning saw Bitcoin reaching another ATH, stirring up market emotions. However, with every new high, there are always concerns about a pullback. In fact, this worry is more psychological, as it is still FOMO time in Asia. The real points of concern will be clearer after the U.S. stock market opens in the evening.

Today, Master will briefly discuss the current market logic: After $MSTR was included in the Nasdaq 100, institutional funds have been continuously increasing their positions, which undoubtedly injects more confidence into the market. Additionally, the premium on CME futures remains significantly higher than spot prices, indicating that large funds are far more optimistic about the future than ordinary retail investors.

If there is anything to be cautious about, it will be after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 19, especially regarding the dot plot for 2025—whether the expectation for rate cuts can exceed 2 to 4 times will significantly impact the market.

As for pullbacks, there is really no need for excessive interpretation. Last week's so-called pullback ultimately didn't even last a week before being directly invalidated by a new high. The trend is the core force driving prices; as long as the trend remains intact, pullbacks are merely opportunities for positioning.

Currently, a rate cut in December is highly likely, and a rate cut itself is a clear positive. For this round of the bull market, short-term fluctuations cannot change the overall upward structure.

Many people also feel anxious about reaching 100k, but it should be understood that this is just a new starting point. Some KOLs suggest it will oscillate for half a year like the 73k in the first half of the year, which seems a bit like trying to catch a boat after it has sailed.

Master believes that a true bull market is fast-paced and highly volatile, leaving little time for hesitation. There are less than 11 months left in the halving cycle; if it oscillates for another six months, the logic of the bull market would cease to exist.

In the short term, if there are no significant negative factors this week, the extreme low point for Bitcoin may be around 99255, which is the position for mid-line layout from last week. Even if unexpected negative factors arise, from a technical perspective, Master personally believes the extreme would be no more than 95555.

Conversely, if a rate cut is implemented, the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, and the Christmas consumption boom occurs, these positive factors could further push prices higher. The most taboo in a bull market is blindly shorting, especially when there are no clear signals of a top. If it rises to 100k and you panic at a 3% drop, you might miss out and then follow the trend to short.

Such a mindset will only cause you to miss more opportunities. The overall direction remains a bullish trend; pullbacks are merely brief stops at the station, and the real risk lies in missing the train, not in the fluctuations of the pullback.

Master Looks at Trends:

Bitcoin has broken through the upper edge of the ascending triangle and has reached a new high, currently in a strong rebound state. In the overbought zone, it is recommended to take partial profits and wait for a pullback to re-enter, accumulating gains and avoiding chasing highs!

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 104500

Second Resistance Level: 106700

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 104500

Second Support Level: 103400

Today's Suggestions:

If the 104K~105K range stabilizes, it may form a consolidation box, increasing the probability of a rebound. If there is a pullback, pay attention to the 20/60/120-day moving averages and enter in batches. Avoid chasing highs; wait for stabilization after a pullback to position. The market is prone to profit-taking at high levels, so be sure to patiently wait for pullback opportunities!

12.16 Master’s Segment Pre-Positioning:

Long Entry Reference: Light positions in the 103400-103800 range, Target: 105500-106700

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

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