The information, opinions, and judgments regarding the market, projects, cryptocurrencies, etc., mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Since approaching the psychological barrier of $100,000, BTC has been oscillating around the $90,000 to $100,000 range. With moving averages gradually converging, forming psychological support, BTC broke through the $100,000 mark twice this week, peaking at $104,000.

This week, BTC opened at $97,259.17 and closed at $101,174.99, rising 4.02% over the week, with effective volume expansion.

Although the political turmoil in South Korea had a temporary impact on BTC prices, and as emphasized in our weekly report last week, there is a demand for market consolidation after a significant short-term rise, a certain adjustment occurred over the past week, with a maximum fluctuation of 12.26%. However, both sentiment and capital are currently in an effective support phase, making it difficult to affect the medium to long-term upward trend in prices.

Federal Reserve and Economic Data

The U.S. non-farm payroll data released this week was as "expected," but the expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December soared to 86%.

In an interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated, "I feel very good about the current state of the economy and monetary policy, so the process of lowering rates to a neutral level can be more cautious." This statement was slightly hawkish. He further mentioned that "the good relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will continue under the new government," which reassured the market.

Powell also specifically discussed his views on BTC—"BTC is used as a speculative asset; BTC's competitor is gold, not the dollar." This statement is also quite significant.

The three major stock indices had mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising 3.34% for the week, the S&P 500 up 0.96%, while the Dow Jones saw a slight decline of 0.6%.

The dollar index fell slightly this week, closing at 106.06. Gold continued to decline slightly.

Stablecoins and BTC Spot ETF

The two major channels for capital continue to see explosive inflows. The total inflow for the week exceeded $8.7 billion, indicating that BTC at the $100,000 price level still has strong buying power. As BTC approaches $100,000, the already opened Altseason continues to attract inflows from stablecoin channels.

This week, the inflow for the BTC Spot ETF exceeded $2 billion, still showing a high level of inflow. Especially considering the adjustment that occurred last week after BTC approached the $100,000 mark, the inflow this week alleviated some market concerns.

Stablecoin inflows reached $5.881 billion, marking the second-largest inflow week of this cycle. A large amount of stablecoins has already been injected into centralized exchanges and smart contract lending DApps, providing ample funds for the market.

This has also directly triggered Altseason, with the market experiencing a broad rally and exceptionally high market sentiment.

Sell-off

As the market started to rise, sell-offs also occurred simultaneously.

According to the EMC Labs eMerge engine monitoring, over 240,000 BTC flowed into centralized exchanges this week, primarily for short selling. However, under strong buying support, all selling pressure was absorbed, resulting in a net outflow of over 28,000 BTC from centralized exchanges.

The continued sell-off from short sellers has led to a significant decrease in their unrealized profit levels, dropping from a previous high of 34% to the current 24%.

Regarding the continuously rising trend in November, the current selling pressure is at a normal level and is decreasing. This provides support for BTC prices to firmly stand above $100,000.

Cycle Indicators

The EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.875, indicating that the market is in an upward phase, showing vigorous growth.

END

EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by cryptocurrency asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and investments in the crypto secondary market, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitiveness, aiming to participate in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting the benefits of blockchain and cryptocurrency assets for humanity.

For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund

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