Macroeconomic Interpretation:

Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Data: Tonight at 21:15, the U.S. November ADP employment change data will be released, expected to increase by 150,000, following an increase of 233,000 in October. If this data exceeds expectations, it may reignite optimism for Friday's non-farm payroll data, leading to a decline in gold prices and BTC.

At 23:00 tonight, the U.S. November ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released, expected to be 55.5. This data will provide the market with the latest dynamics of the U.S. service industry.

At 02:45 AM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will be interviewed at the DealBook/Summit conference hosted by The New York Times. In his last speech in November, Powell made hawkish remarks, stating that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, citing a robust job market and inflation still above the 2% target. If Powell sends hawkish signals again, it may stimulate the dollar to rise and trigger a new round of gold selling, putting pressure on U.S. stocks and the crypto market.

At 03:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions. This will provide the market with the latest status of the U.S. economy.

Tonight's series of economic data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches will have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar index, spot gold, and the crypto market. We need to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy direction and U.S. economic data and market performance.

Today's Major Asset Performance:

The U.S. dollar index has shown relatively stable short-term performance, currently around 106.55, with a slight increase of 0.29%. This reflects global confidence in the U.S. financial market and a trend of buying dollar-denominated assets. Meanwhile, the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, euro, and Japanese yen against the dollar have depreciated, with the dollar maintaining a strong position. Additionally, the market generally expects a cooling of Trump-related trades, but the continuous breakthroughs in offshore yuan show the complexity and uncertainty of the market.

Spot gold prices also remain stable, currently around $2,640 per ounce. However, gold prices fell by 3.41% in November, marking the largest monthly decline in 14 months. This downward trend is related to the increase in global risk appetite, with equity assets and the cryptocurrency market becoming new favorites for safe-haven funds. If tonight's U.S. ADP employment data exceeds expectations, it may further pressure gold prices.

The BTC market has recently shown relatively volatile performance, currently fluctuating around $96,500. In November, BTC rose by 37.42%, with a volatility of 47.12% and effective volume expansion. Some institutions believe that if BTC breaks through the $100,000 mark in the future, the market will gradually show ETH breaking historical highs, a broad market rally, and the main market trends being gradually recognized.

Analysis of Korean Kimchi Premium:

Last night, following the South Korean president's emergency order, some platforms in Korea saw BTC trading at a negative premium of over 30%. This is more of a regional event affecting a single market, primarily due to a sharp drop in the Korean won, and also because there is currently too little balance in the market, making liquidity exhaustion more likely.

There are actually quite a few similar cases; many may remember the decoupling of U.S. dollar prices in October 2018, where BTC priced in CNY soared, but the fluctuations in some foreign exchanges priced in U.S. dollars were much smaller. Similar situations occurred in Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2018-2019, where several times premiums were observed.

BTC Analysis:

The BTC four-hour chart shows it operating on an upward trend line, with the current trend line providing short-term support that roughly coincides with trend indicators. Currently, it is fluctuating around 94,000-94,500; if it stays above this range, it leans towards a bullish trend, while a drop below would indicate a bearish trend. The main accumulation area remains below $91,000. Mid-term support is referenced at 87,000 and 85,000, with resistance above at the recent high of $99,588 and the historical high.

The daily death cross adjustment was first mentioned when we were at $99,000, and there have been instances of drops to around $90,790 and $93,580 during this period. This viewpoint has continued for several days, and currently, it is generally in a range-bound fluctuation without a breakthrough. There is hope for a pullback, but the form of the pullback may not necessarily be a direct drop; since November 29, the recent rebound highs and drop lows have also been moving downwards, which is one form. Additionally, there is the method of oscillation repair to complete the indicator signals.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。