Preface
The market is inevitably cruel, and risks are objectively present, but profits are also real. While we should hold a sense of reverence for the market, we should also exercise more patience.
Everyone enters this market with the goal of making money. If the result is to exit with losses, no one would accept that. At such times, a grand reason is needed to support oneself, which is the so-called belief. When the market price exceeds one's holding price, very few will immediately sell, because human nature is greedy. If one has made a profit, why not make more? Thus, a so-called "belief" is also needed to disguise one's ambition.
Decoding the Story Behind the Volatile Price Swings
In the current Bitcoin market, the price continues to break through, even approaching historical highs, prompting a large number of buy orders in the market. Both retail investors and institutions are very willing to see such events continue to happen.
However, starting last night, Bitcoin began to plummet, dropping from a peak of 73,000 to a low of around 68,800, falling over 4,000 points in a single day. Is this the result of market makers offloading? Or is it due to negative news leading to a sluggish market? All of this was actually anticipated; it’s just that you, the participant, have not yet seen it clearly.
Reasons
There has been no significant positive news to drive the price up, and there is no data support.
There has not been a significant influx of new capital; the funds in the market are insufficient to support new highs or continuous breakthroughs.
Unlike the previous year in 2021 or the end of last year to the beginning of this year, where Bitcoin reached new highs while driving up other altcoins.
In summary: It is very likely that large market makers are using the tone of the U.S. elections to manipulate existing funds in the market, creating a false hot market, waiting for the election news to reach new highs before finding an opportunity to offload their low-priced assets, resulting in a sharp drop. Therefore, for friends holding spot assets, my advice is to exit as early as possible.
Personal speculation: Even if the market is bullish in the future, there may only be 1-2 more upward movements at most before it peaks, or it may not rise and directly fall. In the last two months, during this year-end period, there will likely be a sharp drop; be cautious of the next black swan event.
Bitcoin Market Analysis on November 1
At this stage, after Bitcoin's sharp drop back to the bottom of 68,800, it has started to stabilize at a low level during the day. In the short term, there has not been a significant signal indicating a stop to the decline, and from a daily perspective, there is still some bearish space at the bottom to continue moving. The only point we need to pay attention to is that during the short-term day trading phase, there is a high probability of a slight warming trend. It is not very appropriate to hastily enter short positions; it is still recommended to wait until near the pressure points of the top and bottom conversion before entering short. Alternatively, wait for the next support at a lower point to enter long positions.
Bitcoin Trading Strategy Reference for November 1
Short Position: You can enter a short position around 70,800, with a stop loss at 71,400. The target is to reduce positions near 69,600, and continue to see down to 68,400 in batches.
If the market remains sideways below 70,000 during the day, then you can enter a short position in advance at 70,000 in the evening.
Long Position: During the day, if it retraces to 69,100-68,900, enter long with a 300-point stop loss, aiming to exit in batches at 69,800-70,500.
If the stop loss is triggered or the market does not drop to the long entry position during the day, then you can continue to set up long positions in the evening at 68,200-67,800, aiming for 69,000-69,800.
Conclusion
In fact, operating in the market is not that difficult. Grasp the right mindset, think calmly, and simply put, the market is just two directions: long or short, a choice between two. Everyone has a fifty percent chance, and what I do is to increase your operational effectiveness and stability. When you don’t know how to enter and grasp the points, I provide you with a clear direction!
Sometimes I really don’t want to say too much; saying more feels like nonsense, and you might not want to read it. But I have to say it; I always want to instill the correct mindset in everyone and provide the right operational model. However, what often comes back is futile effort. I don’t expect everyone to recognize the teacher, but I hope that friends who already recognize the teacher can continue to walk together and earn their share of profits.
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