In the past week, the market fluctuated between $65,000 and $69,000. On the 28th, BTC began to rise from a support level of $67,600 and broke through $70,000 in the early hours of the 29th. Although a short-term pullback occurred due to a bearish counterattack, BTC's upward momentum remained strong. At 10 AM on the 29th, BTC's price reached a high of $71,587, with a 24-hour increase of 5.6%. As of the publication of this article, BTC's price fluctuated around $71,000 (the above data is sourced from Binance spot, October 29, 15:00).

Based on the intensifying market FOMO sentiment, the rise in U.S. stocks, and Trump's increasing odds, BTC may hit new highs before the election. Of course, profit-taking after the election results are announced may exert some pressure on BTC's price, but regardless of the election outcome, the likelihood of BTC reaching new highs in the current context is significant.

Market Review

Major Macro Data Week, Series of Key Data May Impact Multiple Market Developments

This week is a major macro data week, with a series of key data set to be released, including Tuesday's JOLTS job openings report, Wednesday's Bank of Japan interest rate decision and the preliminary annualized quarterly GDP for the U.S. in Q3, Thursday's core PCE price index, and Friday's non-farm payroll data. Investors are advised to closely monitor macro data and adjust their positions in a timely manner.

Earnings Reports from Tech Giants Reach a Peak, Performance Directly Influences Market Sentiment

Recently, U.S. stocks have performed well, and the market generally believes there is an inherent connection between the rise in U.S. stocks and BTC. On the 28th, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq rising by 0.35%, 0.72%, and 0.37%, respectively. The earnings season for U.S. tech giants is also reaching a peak, and the performance disclosures from giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple may directly impact market sentiment.

Tether Responds to Wall Street Journal Report, USDT Price Returns to Pegged Price

On the 25th, Eastern Time, the Wall Street Journal reported on the U.S. government's investigation into Tether. Following the news, USDT briefly fell below its pegged price, putting pressure on the entire cryptocurrency market. Since the 26th, Tether's CEO has responded and denied the report. As no further confirming news emerged over the weekend, USDT's price returned to slightly below the pegged price level.

Trump's Overall Polling Support Rate Rises Significantly, His Company Trump Media & Technology Surges Over 20%

As the seven key swing states in the U.S. increase their bets on Trump, his overall polling support rate has risen significantly. The latest data from Polymarket predicts Trump's election win probability at 66.3%, while Harris stands at 33.7%. RCP polling data shows Trump's and Harris's election probabilities at 48.5% and 48.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, on the 28th, U.S. stocks closed with Trump’s company, Trump Media & Technology, surging over 20%. Many markets are already preparing for Trump's election, and the heat in the cryptocurrency market options has noticeably increased.

BTC Candlestick Chart Shows Upward Indicators, Analysts Believe BTC Price Has Returned to Upward Channel

TradingView technical chart analyst TradingShot stated, "BTC broke through its 7-month bearish megaphone pattern last week" and "BTC has re-established itself above the important support level of the 50-week moving average." This indicates that Bitcoin has successfully escaped the downward trend during this period and is expected to reopen a new upward cycle. Historical data shows that BTC's price is often influenced by the 50-week moving average, which has frequently served as a support level for Bitcoin's price.

At the same time, a MACD golden cross has appeared on BTC's weekly chart. A MACD golden cross is typically seen as a bullish signal, indicating that a significant price increase may occur in the future.

Investment Recommendations

Although there is a possibility of short-term fluctuations in BTC, analysts generally have a positive outlook on BTC's future development. As the development of BTC ETFs further promotes the mainstream adoption of BTC, and BTC gradually becomes a mainstream choice in corporate investment allocations, the liquidity siphoning effect of BTC may become more evident.

In the current market situation, investors can consider diversifying across multiple assets to mitigate the impact of black swan events, with satellite strategies being a good option. For example, comprehensively planning the asset allocation of crypto assets and traditional safe-haven assets (like gold), and then meticulously planning crypto asset investments based on individual risk tolerance and financial planning to determine a stable return and risk-reward ratio, while obtaining stable and rational returns, and reasonably planning for the appreciation of both crypto and gold assets.

Matrixport's Shark Fin or Trend Smart Yield products are robust structured products that, based on cost protection, can yield relatively good incremental returns if market trends are correctly assessed, suitable for investors who are bullish on BTC and ETH trends in the long term. Matrixport's RWA platform, Matrixdock, has recently launched the gold token XAUm, fully backed by physical gold bars with a purity of no less than 99.99% according to LBMA specifications, and has opened physical redemption services in Hong Kong and Singapore.

As a global leading one-stop crypto financial service platform, Matrixport offers users a variety of asset management products, including dual currency investments, snowballs, shark fins, trend smart yields, seagulls, and other structured products; quantitative strategies, passive strategies, and other strategic investments. The above products support multi-currency investments with a wide range of selectable investment periods.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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