On October 15, the price of Bitcoin successfully broke through $66,000, reaching a new high since August. Data shows that Bitcoin rose 7.2% from a low of $62,172 on October 14, peaking at $66,680, and as of the time of writing, BTC is reported at $65,705.
This strong breakthrough of Bitcoin is not only a strong response to market sentiment but also a positive indication for future trends.
In fact, historical data shows that Bitcoin often performs well in October, and the narrative known as "Uptober" has been validated once again. According to Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group, despite the mixed performance in the first two weeks of this month, seasonal trends still point to strong performance in the fourth quarter.
Independent cryptocurrency analyst Bullish Traders also conducted an in-depth analysis of market trends. In a post on X on October 14, he noted, "Today BTC broke through the trend and support area of $63,500." This breakthrough is seen as the end of an upward trend, as Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen below the 200-day moving average since deviating from its historical high in March. He believes the price will eventually reach and break the downward trend, rising to $71,165 as the next short-term target.
The robustness of the market is reflected not only in technical analysis but also through significant capital flows. Data shows that digital asset investment products saw inflows of $407 million last week, with total inflows for Bitcoin reaching $419 million, making it a major beneficiary of recent political changes. Meanwhile, the weekly inflow into blockchain stock ETFs is one of the largest this year, totaling $34 million, which may be a response to the rise in Bitcoin prices. David Lawant from FalconX believes that ETF liquidity may become a more important driver of price action.
Speaking of factors influencing market trends, China's latest fiscal policy announcement is an undeniable variable. Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fang'an stated that the government plans to stimulate economic activity by significantly increasing debt issuance. Although the specific scale has not been disclosed, this commitment has already boosted the local stock market and may have a positive impact on risk assets like Bitcoin. Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis pointed out in an email that stimulus measures typically favor risk assets, but this dynamic needs to be closely monitored.
Meanwhile, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, stated last Friday that the use of digital assets will increasingly become a global reality. As one of the largest asset management companies in the world, BlackRock's trust in cryptocurrencies is evident as it launched Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs this year. Fink believes that these assets will see broader application and expansion if more acceptability, transparency, and analytical capabilities can be created. He also highlighted the issue of how the U.S. will digitize the dollar and emphasized that the combination of blockchain technology with artificial intelligence and better data analysis will bring market applicability and expansion.
In the U.S., with the upcoming elections, CoinShares research director James Butterfill pointed out that investors' decisions are likely to be influenced by the upcoming U.S. elections rather than the outlook for monetary policy. At the same time, economic data provides further insight into market conditions. The U.S. retail sales report will be released this week, with a projected month-on-month increase of 0.3% in September. This growth will be a positive signal indicating that economic growth has not stalled.
On the other hand, the extension of the deadline for Mt. Gox payouts to October 31, 2025, is expected to alleviate the anticipated market sell-off pressure. This delay has removed some of the negative impacts in the short term, allowing the market to catch its breath.
Overall, Bitcoin's market performance this autumn not only reflects the complexity and diversity within the market but also showcases the intertwined effects of external economic, policy, and technological forces. Against the backdrop of increasing global economic instability, the future of Bitcoin and other crypto assets remains full of challenges and opportunities.
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