JPMorgan's Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli released a report stating that it will be difficult for Trump to weaken the dollar. Both the independence of the Federal Reserve and Trump's lack of a cooperative attitude with other countries may hinder the Trump administration's efforts to weaken the dollar.
For a long time, Trump has been an advocate of a "weak dollar." During his first term, he repeatedly accused other countries of allowing their currencies to depreciate against the dollar, harming U.S. export capabilities. Earlier this year, he complained that a strong dollar would drive businesses out of the U.S., and it was reported that Trump's economic advisors were "actively discussing ways to devalue the dollar after Trump is elected president." Trump has stated more than once that if he begins a second term, he will implement a dollar devaluation policy to boost U.S. exports.
In contrast, Harris supports policies that bolster U.S. Treasury rates and the dollar. Looking at the dollar index, it has rebounded 3% over the past 10 days, approaching Fibonacci 0.5 resistance, with a need for a pullback indicated by a 4-hour top divergence.
Previously, I predicted a high probability of Harris being elected. Now, in conjunction with the dollar index, if it remains stable, Harris's probability is high. However, if the dollar plummets below 99.57, Trump's probability increases.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin continued to decline last night, touching 58945 before rebounding. It has currently recovered from yesterday's small platform, showing a false breakdown. There is still support near 60000, with a potential W-bottom expectation. Friends looking to short in the short term should be cautious of a rebound.
The 4-hour downtrend channel has not yet been effectively broken, so we can only hold a small position for now. We will consider increasing our position once the downtrend channel is officially broken. For those trading spot, a stop loss can be set at 58000. Previously, we expected the price to reach 5.6—5.7W, with a minimum not falling below 55555, and it is currently above this range. (If the current market structure is unclear, you can watch our morning video on the public account.)
Support: Resistance:
Ethereum
Last night, the price spiked to 2330, confirming the 2310 support for the second time. The probability of a rebound is higher due to the 4-hour bottom divergence, while we should also pay attention to the breakout of the 4-hour downtrend line. The altcoin season indicator 31 has retraced compared to before the National Day, and the Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH indicator has broken the BOLL middle track on the weekly chart and is now retesting, providing an opportunity for further rebounds. Among altcoins, UNI, WIF, PEOPLE, etc., are showing strong rebounds.
Support: Resistance:
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Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Public account: Trading Prince Fusu
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