Zhou Yanling: Bitcoin fluctuates below 65,000, waiting for adjustment while Ethereum's rise is weak
The recent hot topic still revolves around the 50 basis point rate cut, a decision that exceeded market expectations and reflects the Federal Reserve's attempt to achieve a soft landing. However, there is still clear internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve about future policies. Among the 19 policymakers, 7 expect an additional 25 basis point rate cut only in 2024, while 2 oppose any further rate cuts. The current market sentiment and institutional views still lean towards cautious optimism, especially against the backdrop of global geopolitical tensions and economic data fluctuations. The attractiveness of Bitcoin as one of the safe-haven assets has further strengthened. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 70 basis points at the November and December meetings, a forecast that is even more aggressive than the Federal Reserve's own stance.
From a comprehensive perspective, Bitcoin still has upward momentum in the short term, but whether it can break through 67,000 depends on further guidance from the Federal Reserve's policies. If the Federal Reserve continues to send dovish signals, Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise; conversely, if economic data shows strength and the US dollar strengthens, Bitcoin may face adjustment pressure. From a technical perspective, the current price has reached a critical decision point. The current candlestick is in a pullback phase, with a long upper shadow on the four-hour candlestick. A push upward is inevitable, but a sustained rally is just a setup for a sudden plunge. After inducing enough long positions, it's time to start harvesting. Therefore, after Friday, we need to be more cautious in our next operations. In the short term, continue to use 65,000 as resistance. If it is not broken, a light short position can be initiated. At this point, Yanling does not recommend chasing long positions at high levels.
Bitcoin Strategy on 9.21:
- Long at 61,900-62,400, stop loss below 61,400, target 63,500-64,000, continue to look for a breakthrough near 65,000
- Short at 65,000-64,500, stop loss above 65,500, target 63,000-62,500
Ethereum Strategy on 9.21:
- Short at 2,590-2,560, stop loss above 2,620, target 2,470-2,430
- Long at 2,420-2,460, stop loss below 2,390, target 2,500-2,540
[The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks on your own. The publication of the article may have delayed strategies and may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on Yanling's real-time strategies.]
This article is exclusively authored and shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling (WeChat: Zhou Yanling). The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for more than ten years, mainly analyzing and guiding BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV and other cryptocurrency contract/spot operations. For more real-time community guidance, de-risking consultations, and chart reading skills, please follow the author's WeChat account: Zhou Yanling to find the author.
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