First of all, I want to declare that I am not a perma-bear. I mainly engage in trend trading. In this round of adjustment, I see the bull market cycle reaching 90,000 to 100,000, or even 120,000. However, the current trend is still dominated by bears. If you are trading ultra-short-term contracts (such as trades lasting a few minutes, tens of minutes, or half-hour periods), my analysis may not be applicable. I focus on rebounds or declines at least at the 4-hour or daily chart level.
Just like in 2023, I was bullish until 48,000, and I kept reducing my positions in batches after it broke 49,000, and I repeatedly warned of a sharp drop during the rebounds to 70,000-72,000 and the subsequent drop to 65,000. I also gave warnings during the bottom fishing, advising to gradually build positions at 50,000, 46,000, and 42,000 for the medium to long term.
Bitcoin
The weekly closing this week is very critical. If the closing is below 59,800, the risk of a sharp drop has not been eliminated. We have been saying that 58,400-59,600-60,600 is the boundary between long and short positions. Bitcoin's daily chart has been oscillating around 58,000, and the rebound has not ended, with a chance for further upward momentum. The MACD has a bullish divergence and a crossover of the fast and slow lines.
The turning point of the 4-hour AB=CD pattern is after 61,000, and there are also signs of a top divergence on the 4-hour chart. With Wall Street not working on Saturday and Sunday and institutions like Grayscale resting, there is a possibility of a small rebound.
Support:
Resistance:
Ethereum
The weak rebound this week has not broken through the 0.382 level. Ethereum is facing pressure to rebound and catch up with the ETH/BTC exchange rate at 2,500-2,600. Although some altcoins have seen good gains in the past few days, it is relatively risky to play altcoins if Bitcoin and Ethereum do not adjust well. In the current market, it is better to not incur losses or minimize losses and retain chips. The opportunity for medium to long-term bottom fishing is getting closer. Don't fall in the darkness before dawn.
Support:
Resistance:
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