Recent market characteristics:

1 - (Chart 1) Since March 24, 2024, BTC has been oscillating slowly downward after reaching its all-time high, constantly testing lower lows and lower highs. This is the overall trend since the net liquidity of the Federal Reserve began to decline in March.

2 - (Chart 2) After the merge upgrade (switch to PoS), ETH has been steadily oscillating downward against BTC. The Shanghai upgrade (withdrawal) and the highly anticipated Cancun upgrade (DA) have not changed this trend or the ETF. This issue has been widely discussed recently. In short, applications and new asset issuance are key, and I won't elaborate further.

3 - (Chart 3) BTC's market dominance has been rising since the end of 2022 and has not changed this trend so far. This also means that the altcoin market has not truly arrived.

Subsequent turning points:

1 - The outcome of the election may be a key point.

2 - The interest rate cut in September should already be fully priced in and will not have a major impact on the overall market.

3 - An uncertain and more crucial point is when the Federal Reserve will stop quantitative tightening, which is estimated to be by the end of the year.

After the turning points occur, BTC will first stop falling and start to rise, and the altcoin season will not arrive until next year.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。