Zhou Yanling: Inflation on 9.12 Dampens Rate Cut Momentum, Waiting for ECB's Big Move Tonight
Last night, the US CPI indeed set the tone for the US dollar's trend. The August core CPI was slightly higher than expected, marking the largest increase in four months. The unexpected rise in core inflation was mainly due to accelerated growth in housing and transportation costs. The so-called super core CPI rose by 0.33% month-on-month, the largest monthly increase since April, driven by continued acceleration in transportation services, marking the largest increase in five months. The persistent inflation has reduced the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Based on the current situation, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September is now less than 20%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 83%. After the data was released, the US dollar jumped and maintained a high-level oscillation in the latter half of the US session. Today, the ECB may announce a 25 basis point rate cut. If the rate cut matches expectations, the EUR/USD may test the bottom and rebound. The content of the decision statement and Lagarde's speech that follows will be crucial. If the ECB signals dovishness, the EUR/USD may continue to decline. If there is no clear dovish signal, it is expected that the EUR/USD will launch a strong rebound. At that time, everyone must take all risk control measures in their operations and avoid blindly following the trend.
From a technical perspective, yesterday's trend was basically in line with Yanling's expectations, still in a washout phase. In this kind of trend, both long and short positions have opportunities. The price first rose to just above 57000, then was suppressed to around 55500 with the help of data, and then quickly rebounded to 58000, completing the washout. The overall trend and direction are still bullish, but this back and forth washout trend is not significant for both long and short positions, because neither long nor short positions can be sustained or held for a long time. Between the switch from long to short positions, either choose to hold a low long position or engage in short-term trading of long and short positions. It can be seen that the support below Bitcoin is still continuously moving upward. In the short term, it is very likely to form an upward channel within a small range, with 60200 as the resistance above and the 56500 area as the support below, expecting continued oscillation. In this situation, even if the price breaks through 60000, it may not necessarily go far, and it may still fall back and wash out again. Therefore, the theme for the day is oscillation, with no one-sided movement. Even if the price continues to rise, do not chase after it. The bullish view remains unchanged in operations, but do not chase after the rise, and focus on short-term fluctuations.
Bitcoin Operation Strategy on 9.12:
- Long at 57100-57600, stop loss below 56500, target 59000-59600
- Short at 59600-59100, stop loss above 60000, target 58300-57700
Ethereum Operation Strategy on 9.12:
- Long at 2310-2340, stop loss below 2270, target 2390-2420, continue to rise and look at around 2490 if it breaks through
- If 2420 is not broken, consider shorting. Lightly short at 2420-2390, stop loss above 2450, target 2320-2280
[The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risk on your own. The article's review and release may have delayed strategies and lack timeliness. Specific operations should be based on Yanling's real-time strategies.]
This article is exclusively authored and shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling (WeChat public account: Zhou Yanling). The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for more than ten years, mainly analyzing and guiding operations in the coin circle contracts/spots of BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV, etc. For more real-time community guidance, de-risking consultations, and chart reading skills learning, please follow the author's public account: Zhou Yanling to find the author.
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