Over the past week, BTC saw a maximum weekly decline of 12%, dropping to $52,550 on September 7th, followed by a technical correction. On the morning of September 10th, it broke through $58,000 before falling back, and is currently fluctuating around $57,000 (the above data is from Binance spot, 16:00 on September 10th). With few current catalysts related to BTC, the main catalysts are related to the FOMC interest rate decision, and BTC lacks strong market driving force. Although the price of BTC has risen this week, based on the current perpetual contract financing rate and futures basis, investors are advised to carefully evaluate market trends and pay attention to the risk of pullbacks.

Market Environment

Inflation data released this week may further drive Fed decisions

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for August will be released on Wednesday and Thursday this week. This inflation report will further provide information for the Fed's decision at the next FOMC meeting. According to the FedWatch Tool data from CME Group, the market is currently predicting a 71% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting, with only a 29% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut.

Market buying on dips drives simultaneous rise in European and American stock markets yesterday

As of the close on September 9th, European and American stock markets rose simultaneously, with the Dow rising by over 500 points and the Nasdaq rising by over 1% at one point. The market believes that the rebound in the stock market is not influenced by news, but is driven by normal market buying on dips due to oversold conditions and expectations of monetary policy.

Harris will hold the first debate with Trump, and public information does not mention Harris addressing cryptocurrency-related issues

ABC News reported that Harris's first presidential debate with Trump will be held at 9:00 am on September 11th at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and will be broadcast live on ABC News Live, Disney+, and Hulu. Harris's campaign website has released a list of her proposed policy positions for the future presidential government, which does not mention cryptocurrency-related topics. However, Harris has pledged to support the development of the artificial intelligence industry and emphasized the importance of nurturing "other cutting-edge industries of the future."

Layout Suggestions

The Fed's rate cut has become a certainty, but market concerns about the prospect of a US economic recession have reduced the driving force of this catalyst. In August, the VIX index, which measures market volatility, soared to over 65, a level that has historically only occurred twice, during the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis in 2008. Investors' concerns about a potential economic recession outweigh the long-awaited positive expectations of a rate cut.

At the same time, a comprehensive analysis of current market indicators shows a decrease in demand for bullish trades in the market, a general lack of interest from investors in the long-term directional exposure to Bitcoin prices, and a cautious attitude from traders towards current positions. In this context, it is recommended that investors reduce their reliance on a single market, diversify and allocate assets reasonably (satellite strategy) to cope with potential short-term market fluctuations. Meanwhile, under the premise of market adjustment, long-term investors can closely monitor medium and long-term opportunities in the market, but should also pay attention to risk control and consider allocating some conservative cost-protecting products to ensure basic returns.

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