The U.S. ADP employment data, known as "small non-farm payroll," was officially released last night. The report shows that the number of ADP employment in the U.S. increased by 99,000 in August, far below the expected 145,000, marking the lowest figure since January 2021.

At the same time, ADP's July employment data was revised down from 122,000 to 111,000. The latest ADP employment data provides ample evidence of a slowdown in labor demand for the Federal Reserve. Fed officials have openly stated that they are now more concerned about the risks in the labor market than inflation. Due to the cooling of the labor market, the market is almost 100% certain that the Fed will start cutting interest rates at this month's FOMC meeting, with a 57% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 43% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut.

Next, the non-farm payroll data will be released at 20:30 tonight. The previous value was 4.30%, and the market expectation is 4.20%. If the released data is lower than expected, it will be favorable for the market; conversely, if the data is higher than expected, it may have a negative impact. At 20:30, the seasonally adjusted non-farm population data for August in the U.S. will also be released. The previous value was 11.4, and the market expectation is 16. If the released data is lower than expected, it will be favorable for the market, and if it is higher than expected, it will be negative.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin briefly rose to nearly $57,400 after the ADP data was released, but then succumbed to selling pressure, falling back to a low of $55,631. During the Asian session today, it continued to fluctuate and fell below the recent lows, reaching as low as $55,250. At the time of writing, the price was quoted at $55,866, with a drop of approximately 3.34% in the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart

First, from the Bollinger Bands indicator, the current price has approached the lower band (55,879), with signs of breaking through the lower band (55,181), indicating that the market is in a weak trend. However, if the price can find support at the lower band and rebound, the market may attempt to return to near the middle band (57,152) again.

Further observation of the KDJ indicator shows that all three line values are currently in the oversold zone, especially the J line value is at an extremely low level. This indicates that the market has entered a severe oversold state. In the short term, the market may experience a rebound.

Next, looking at the MACD indicator, the DIF line and the DEA line have formed a dead cross signal below the zero axis. The green histogram of the MACD is also shrinking, indicating that the bearish momentum has weakened. If the green histogram of the MACD continues to shrink, it may mean that the bearish momentum in the market is gradually being exhausted, and the chances of a future rebound may increase.

Finally, the RSI indicator reading is 31.46, also in the oversold zone. This further confirms the excessive selling pressure in the current market. However, this often signals an imminent rebound in the market.

Bitcoin 1-hour chart

First, the Bollinger Bands indicator shows that the price has touched the lower band and rebounded, with the lower band at the 55,704 level providing some support for the price. The overall width of the Bollinger Bands is large, reflecting increased market volatility.

In terms of the KDJ indicator, we can see that the K line and the D line have crossed to form a golden cross and are moving upward, while the J line value has also started to rise. This is a clear signal of the strengthening of bullish momentum in the short term. The three line values of this indicator have not yet entered the overbought zone, indicating that the current rebound momentum remains strong.

Looking at the MACD indicator, the DIF line and the DEA line are still running below the zero axis, indicating that the market is still in a bearish trend. However, the MACD histogram has changed from green to red, indicating that the bearish momentum is weakening, and the market may enter a brief rebound phase. If the red histogram of the MACD continues to grow, the strength of the rebound will also increase.

Finally, looking at the RSI indicator, the value is 39.04, close to the oversold zone but not fully entered. The RSI has started to rebound from a low point, indicating a possible short-term recovery in the market. However, since the RSI value is still at a low level, the strength of the rebound needs to be further confirmed by other indicators.

In summary, Bitcoin is currently in a weak downward channel, but market signals indicate an oversold condition, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound. The lower Bollinger Band provides some support for the price. If the bullish momentum of the MACD continues to weaken, Bitcoin may temporarily stabilize and continue to observe the market trend after a technical rebound. In the 1-hour period, Bitcoin has shown signs of a rebound, and the indicators of MACD and KDJ suggest short-term upward momentum in the market. The overall trend remains bearish, with limited space and strength for the rebound, and it is necessary to closely monitor whether the price can break through the middle Bollinger Band. If it fails to break through, the market may continue to fluctuate or pull back.

The following advice is provided for reference:

Short Bitcoin at 57,100-57,300 for a target of 55,500-55,200, with a defensive position at 57,750. (Beware of the drastic volatility brought by the non-farm payroll data at 20:30 in the evening, the above is for reference only.)

Instead of giving you a 100% accurate recommendation, it's better to give you the correct mindset and trend, after all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them a fish. The suggestion is to focus on the mindset, grasp the trend, and plan the layout and position of the market. What I can do is to use my practical experience to help everyone and guide your investment decisions and management in the right direction.

Drafting time: (2024-09-06, 17:50)

(Author - Da Xian Shuo Bi) Special Note: Online publications have a delay, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the investment fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, stocks, and has been involved in the financial markets for many years, with rich experience in actual trading operations. Investment involves risks, so caution is advised when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please follow Da Xian Shuo Bi for discussion and exchange.

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