Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Fu Ruhe ( @vincent31515173 )

In the past 24 hours, there have been new developments in the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov.

At 9 pm Beijing time last night, Pavel Durov was first taken from the anti-fraud office where he was previously detained to the court by the French police, awaiting the court's charges. The court finally filed charges against Pavel Durov at around 3:30 am Beijing time today. Pavel needs to provide a bail of 5 million euros (about 5.44 million US dollars), report to the police station twice a week, and is prohibited from leaving French territory under judicial supervision. After meeting these conditions, Pavel Durov can be released.

Odaily Planet Daily has analyzed the latest developments in the arrest of Pavel Durov and their impact on the TON ecosystem.

Whether the arrest of the Telegram founder has caused a public opinion storm, and the TON ecosystem market fluctuates dramatically

During the development of the event, the market trends of TON ecosystem tokens such as TON, NOT, and DOGS were significantly affected at different times last night. Especially when Pavel Durov was taken from the anti-fraud office to the court by the French police, TON, NOT, DOGS, and other ecosystem tokens experienced significant fluctuations. The market trend of Toncoin is shown in the following figure:

First wave of market fluctuations: affected by Pavel Durov being taken to court.

At 9:00 pm yesterday, according to Cointelegraph, Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, was taken by car from the anti-fraud office where he was detained to the Paris court.

As soon as the news came out, the Toncoin market trend declined, as indicated by position 1 in the Toncoin market trend chart, with a 3% drop to a price of 5.3 USDT. This market decline can be understood as investors selling on a small scale due to Pavel Durov's imminent court charges.

Second wave of market fluctuations: affected by the false "news" of Pavel Durov being released from the police station, which the public mistakenly believed.

It was expected that the court's charges against Pavel Durov would need to be awaited, but unexpectedly, social media led by X platform was filled with news of Pavel Durov's freedom, with users expressing joyous comments about Pavel Durov being released almost every minute on social media, and even many cryptocurrency projects also issued statements.

At the same time, the market for TON ecosystem tokens also experienced a rapid rebound, as shown in the market trend chart for Toncoin, with a rapid increase in the market, a short-term increase of over 12.8%, reaching a high of 5.991 USDT, and other related tokens such as NOT and DOGS also experienced significant rebounds, with increases of over 10%.

Subsequently, many media and well-known figures debunked the false news online, stating that Pavel Durov was released from the police station because the final deadline for his arrest had arrived and he needed to be taken to court to await the final charges. Therefore, the "release" only meant being released from the police station, not that Pavel had gained freedom. Social media users exposed this misunderstanding, which was first spread by a user named "what zhe media hides."

However, from another perspective, this cannot be considered false news, as Pavel Durov was indeed released from the police station, but was only taken to court by the police.

Subsequently, the market trend continued to decline, with a 10% drop, and Toncoin fell to 5.37 USDT, with other TON ecosystem tokens also experiencing declines of over 10%.

Third wave of market fluctuations: affected by Pavel Durov's prosecution and travel restrictions imposed by the court.

According to media such as Agence France-Presse and TASS, the court needed to file charges against Pavel Durov before 2 am Beijing time on the 29th. However, it was not until 3:30 am that the Paris court disclosed relevant information, filing 8 criminal charges against the founder of Telegram, Pavel Durov. Under judicial supervision, Pavel Durov needs to provide a bail of 5 million euros (about 5.44 million US dollars), report to the police station twice a week, and is prohibited from leaving French territory.

Affected by this news, as shown in the market trend chart labeled 3, the price of Toncoin rapidly declined to 5.12 USDT, with a 9.6% drop at this stage. It later rebounded to 5.437 USDT.

In the article "Telegram founder arrested, more than half of the funds withdrawn, will the TON ecosystem suffer a devastating blow?" TON ecosystem-related projects expressed that Pavel Durov's arrest would not affect the normal operation of the project. However, market trends do not lie, and the misunderstanding event last night clearly demonstrates Pavel Durov's importance to the TON ecosystem.

The arrest of the founder has sparked widespread discussion on the internet. Who has Telegram offended?

As a global instant messaging software with 1 billion active users, the arrest of the founder of Telegram has brought subsequent impacts to numerous industries and user groups.

Telegram has always been known for its anti-censorship and strong encryption, to the extent that it has become the core base for many groups advocating for freedom of speech, and is most commonly used in global anti-authority protest movements. With its anonymity, flexible group functions, and the ability to operate normally on the internet under restricted conditions, Telegram has become a key tool for various organizations and mobilization protest activities.

Therefore, many "freedom fighters" who support Pavel Durov and well-known figures in the cryptocurrency industry have updated their avatars to the Resistance Dog logo, which was personally drawn and named by Telegram's founder in 2018, to express their support for Pavel Durov.

In addition to its prominent position in grassroots movements, Telegram has also become an important channel for various national intelligence organizations to disseminate opinions and interests externally.

The American media personality, political commentator, and writer Tucker Carlson released an interview video with former US State Department official Mike Benz today, in which the two discussed the real reasons behind Pavel Durov's arrest. Mike Benz stated, "Telegram has always been an important channel for foreign intelligence organizations to gather information, with annual state funding for Telegram reaching tens of billions of dollars."

Regarding the real reasons for Durov's arrest, Mike Benz believes, "After being sanctioned, Russia used Telegram to monitor Ukraine, and Russia has also used Telegram as a tool for controlling external speech, for example in the Middle East and Africa, where Telegram's role is obvious."

Within 48 hours of Pavel Durov's arrest, Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire posted a short article on X platform titled "The World is underestimating the significance of the Pavel Durov arrest", mentioning Pavel Durov's previous experience of being sanctioned in Russia and stating that restricting Telegram is unjust, and Western countries, known for their freedom of speech, are gradually moving towards dictatorship.

Furthermore, after Pavel Durov's arrest, prominent figures such as Elon Musk and US and Russian officials have expressed their opinions, detailed content of which is included in "The aftermath of the arrest of Telegram founder: US-Russia confrontation, industry support, determination to buy coins, and public movements", which readers can refer to for more information.

The future of Pavel Durov's freedom remains uncertain

Although Pavel Durov was released due to the expiration of the longest detention period in France, he has not truly gained freedom. The court has charged Pavel Durov with 8 counts, including conspiracy to operate illegal trading platforms, organized crime; refusal to provide data required for lawful interception by authorities; conspiracy to provide software or data to attack automated data processing systems; dissemination of material exploiting children and involvement in organized drug trafficking; fraud and conspiracy to commit crimes or misdemeanors; money laundering activities related to organized crime; providing confidentiality password services without proper declaration; and importing passwords implying only identity verification or integrity checks.

In addition, Durov needs to be released under judicial supervision, with conditions including a bail of up to 5 million euros, reporting to the police station twice a week, and restrictions on leaving French territory. All of this proves that Pavel Durov has been "soft detained" by France.

Renowned KOL on X platform, Mario Nawfal, stated that based on the court's charges, Pavel Durov could face a maximum sentence of 10 years.

Meanwhile, according to the US political news website Politico, Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov's brother and co-founder, Nikolay, is also wanted by French authorities. However, Russian media reports that the prosecutor's office has disclosed that the case of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov is unrelated to the arrest warrant for his brother Nikolay.

Regardless of whether the two cases are related, as mentioned above, fundamentally, the existence of Telegram threatens the interests of relevant countries, leading to judicial control over its responsible individuals.

Furthermore, in addition to facing charges from the French government, Pavel Durov is also under investigation by Swiss authorities due to a criminal complaint from his former partner Irina Bolgar, involving allegations of physical violence against their child, along with multiple civil lawsuits.

The case between Pavel Durov and his former partner Irina Bolgar has been ongoing for a long time, and it is only gradually becoming known to the public after Durov's arrest in France.

Therefore, with the combined effect of multiple pieces of information, although Pavel Durov has been temporarily released, he also faces a lengthy court judgment, involving a tangle of interests from multiple parties, and maintaining the status quo is likely the best choice.

Odaily Planet Daily will continue to follow the latest developments in the Pavel Durov case.

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