The original article by Arthur Hayes titled "Arthur Hayes Blog: Predicting the Market Trend in the Second Half of the Year and When Will the Altcoin Cycle Come?" mainly predicts that by 2025, both China and the United States will add liquidity to the market for various reasons, leading to a bull market for cryptocurrencies, especially driven by fiscal stimulus measures.

1️⃣ Compared to focusing on the Federal Reserve, more attention should be paid to the US Treasury Department, as it has greater influence in controlling and determining the liquidity of legal tender, especially during the "fiscal dominance" period.

2️⃣ Fiscal Dominance and Debt Management: When the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 100%, the Treasury Department becomes a key player in debt management. By controlling debt issuance, the Treasury Department influences market liquidity, thereby directly affecting asset prices.

3️⃣ Liquidity Injection Strategy: US Treasury Secretary Yellen injects liquidity into the market through the issuance of short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) and other measures. Arthur Hayes believes that this will lead to a rise in financial asset prices (including Bitcoin), especially on the eve of the election.

4️⃣ Market Manipulation and Political Motives: The article speculates that Yellen will help boost financial market performance to support Harris's election prospects through a series of liquidity injection measures.

5️⃣ Prospects for Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies: With liquidity injection, the price of Bitcoin will rise significantly, and other cryptocurrencies (such as Ethereum and Solana) will follow suit.

Trading Strategy: Xiaohei suggests profiting from the market's rise around the end of the year, especially temporarily selling after the US election. Xiaohei believes that the election is a coin toss process and prefers to stay on the sidelines in the chaos, re-entering the market after the US debt ceiling is raised.

Original Article Translation Link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/CFeflXNkxmiVe44bbyRIKQ

FROM: @wublockchain12 @WutalkWu

Original Article Link: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/water-water-every-where

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