Let's talk about Buffett. As of August 2024, Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio includes 41 stocks with a total value of approximately $331.68 billion. The top five holdings are:
Apple Inc. (AAPL) - accounting for 40.81% of the investment portfolio.
Bank of America (BAC) - accounting for 11.81%.
American Express (AXP) - accounting for 10.41%.
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) - accounting for 7.38%.
Chevron Corporation (CVX) - accounting for 5.85%.
From this, you should understand that even if Buffett only reduced his Apple holdings by half, it does not necessarily mean he believes the market will be very bad and is exiting. In fact, even with half of the Apple holdings reduced, the remaining half still accounts for over 20% of the overall investment portfolio, not to mention the other stocks. The one that can resist recession should be Coca-Cola.
So, in a worst-case scenario, if Buffett really believes there is a recession, shouldn't he reduce all non-defensive assets? More importantly, Berkshire Hathaway's reduction occurred by the end of June at the latest (before the end of the second quarter). Therefore, it may not be entirely accurate to unilaterally assume that Buffett's reduction indicates a bearish view on the U.S. economy.
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