Reference Source Bankless
Author | Golem (@web3golem)_
This week, influenced by various changes in the US election and the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, the prices of BTC and ETH have rebounded. So, how will the performance of altcoins be in the next 3 months? The Bankless analysis team has recently made predictions on the trends of 10 altcoins over the next three months. This article will summarize the predictions and reasons of the Bankless analysis team and provide a summary of the previous predictions for readers' reference.
Previous prediction accuracy: 43.7%
In early July, when the market was generally declining, Bankless predicted the trends of 16 tokens for the next 3 months. For detailed content, please refer to "How will the 16 tokens perform in the next three months? Bankless predicts". So far, its prediction accuracy is about 43.7%, with 7 out of the predicted 16 tokens meeting the expected trends.
L2 Sector, all predictions correct, top L2 tokens' performance is not as good as ETH. ETH has risen by about 25% from early July to now, while ARB (down 5%), BLAST (down 23%), OP (down 17%), and STRK (unclear rise and fall) have experienced declines.
However, the predictions for the L1 sector and the SLD sector have been somewhat unsuccessful. As of now, SOL and ETHFI have risen by 23% and 9% respectively, while AVAX, which was predicted to rise, has fallen by 8%.
DeFi Sector
Maker (MKR)
View: Neutral
Reason: Has huge growth potential, but heavily influenced by cycles
Prediction period: July 22, 2024, to October 22, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $2
Performance of the price since the prediction: No significant change
The Bankless analysis team holds a neutral view on MKR's future performance. If the crypto bull market continues, investors may recognize the huge growth potential of Maker, but it may also face the risk of losses during market downturns, especially in the event of Ethena's bankruptcy.
In 2023, Maker increased the supply of DAI by minting stablecoins in a liquidity-demanding currency market, initially through its Spark lending subDAO, and now also through third-party Morpho applications. The rise of high-yield Ethena synthetic dollar collateral in 2024 allows Maker to lend DAI at a premium, and the stability of the collateral allows borrowers to take on debt at very high loan-to-value ratios.
Maker currently generates annualized fee income of $281 million, making it one of the most valuable cryptocurrencies. If the crypto market continues to grow in the future, its current fully diluted market-to-sales ratio of 9.6x is not considered high.
Instadapp (INST)
View: Bullish
Reason: Introduction of new features gives it an advantage in DeFi competition
Prediction period: July 16, 2024, to October 16, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $2.2
Performance of the price since the prediction: Down 1.36%
The Bankless analysis team believes that INST may outperform the market, as crypto investors are looking for alternatives to tokens with no real value, and the push from Fluid can increase Instadapp's adoption and revenue.
From June to July, due to actual revenue and fundamental factors, previously underperforming DeFi tokens have attracted the attention of cryptocurrency traders, and Instadapp is one of them. Instadapp is a platform that aggregates multiple DeFi protocols into a unified smart contract layer. The Instadapp team launched Fluid this year, which can combine money markets and DEX into a new combination, built on a unified Instadapp liquidity layer, allowing users to earn returns from collateral and gain greater flexibility in borrowing.
Stacks (STX)
View: Neutral
Reason: Fundamentals are improving, but there is a risk of being defined as a security
Prediction period: July 15, 2024, to October 15, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $1.88
Performance of the price since the prediction: No significant change
From 2017 to 2019, Hiro Systems (formerly Blockstack) raised $70 million through token sales; in 2019, it conducted the first SEC-qualified public token sale through Reg A+, and during this period, it sold tokens to accredited investors and international investors under Reg D and S exemptions.
After transitioning Stack to a decentralized proof-of-transfer consensus mechanism, Hiro Systems submitted an application to the SEC in January 2021, stating that it would no longer provide "basic management services for the Stacks blockchain" to remove the suspicion that STX is a security.
However, the SEC disagreed with Hiro's statement and launched an investigation into Stacks later that year. However, the SEC announced last Friday that it does not intend to take enforcement action against Hiro Systems.
The Bankless analysis team maintains a neutral stance on Stacks. Although the SEC has confirmed that Hiro did not engage in illegal activities in its token sales, the announcement did not provide any clear indication of whether STX is a security, thus posing significant unresolved risks. However, from a fundamental perspective, the Stacks Nakamoto upgrade will separate transaction waiting times from Bitcoin's 10-minute block time to provide more immediate confirmations, which may have a positive impact on the token price.
Maple Finance (MPL)
View: Bearish
Reason: Limited product competitiveness, increased token inflation adds selling pressure
Prediction period: July 10, 2024, to October 10, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $11.64
Performance of the price since the prediction: Up 65.64%
The Bankless analysis team is not optimistic about MPL's future performance because its cash management products have limited adoption compared to other products, uncollateralized loans may default as they have done multiple times in the past, the crypto-backed loans provided to a large number of borrowers are likely to be liquidated in a market downturn, the incentive effect of the scoring plan is also limited, and the increased future token inflation will also bring selling pressure.
Although Maple's TVL has almost doubled since March, the token price has fallen by 60% from its high point that month. The rise is mainly driven by the over-collateralized USDC loans for BTC and SOL, targeting a few whitelisted traders.
On June 8, at the ETHCC conference, Maple announced a 50% increase in point deposits for its "retail-focused" product Syrup, simply by re-depositing assets into existing Maple pools—mainly its highest-yielding high-yield collateral loan pool. The point rewards come from the approved 23% token inflation in proposal MIP-009, which is expected to continue. When MPL is converted to tokens this year, recipients may be able to convert their points into an unknown amount of SYRUP.
Ondo Finance (ONDO)
View: Bearish
Reason: Overvalued, market cannot meet the demand
Prediction period: July 8, 2024, to October 8, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $0.92
Predicted price performance to date: Up 13.52%
The Bankless analysis team predicts that the market growth in the coming months will find it difficult to meet the massive valuation of ONDO.
From March to early June, the token price and TVL of Ondo doubled, but in the month before the analysis, the market value of ONDO shrank by one-third due to almost no inflow of funds.
Ondo's $550 million deposit yield is about 5%, and the protocol's annualized income is slightly less than $30 million, resulting in a market-to-sales ratio of 303x, indicating that investors have already bet on ONDO's future growth.
Although the potential market for on-chain money market tools is worth tens of trillions of dollars, the continued lack of growth will make it difficult to justify ONDO's massive valuation. If blockchain is truly adopted by the mainstream, Ondo is simply tokenizing the products of other asset management companies and will be quickly replaced by actual issuing entities (i.e., BlackRock).
Other Sectors
BNB Chain (BNB)
View: Bearish
Reason: Weak ecosystem, insufficient business in the US to support upward momentum
Prediction period: July 19, 2024, to October 19, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $593.54
Performance of the price since the prediction: Down 1%
The Bankless analysis team believes that BNB has no reason to rise due to the news of Binance US obtaining court authorization to invest in US treasuries, and the on-chain metrics of BNB Chain have been declining since June, lacking the momentum to sustain its ecosystem.
On July 19, the court responsible for the SEC v. Binance case approved the BAM management entity of Binance US to custody enterprise assets and customer statutory funds at BitGo for investment in one-month US treasuries, provided that no third parties (including other Binance entities) are involved in the investment, and Binance US maintains sufficient reserves to honor statutory withdrawals.
While the potential to earn returns through exchange accounts may attract users to use Binance US, who may then be tempted to purchase BNB, considering that Coinbase already offers a USDC yield program, it is unclear whether this feature will attract crypto traders.
Mantle (MNT)
View: Neutral
Reason: Although competitive advantage is evident, overall pressure in the L2 race is significant
Prediction period: July 18, 2024, to October 18, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $0.85
Performance of the price since the prediction: Up 2.85%
The Bankless analysis team maintains a neutral view on the future performance of MNT. While Mantle has the ability to compete with other L2 solutions, the industry as a whole faces valuation resistance due to increased supply, and Mantle will need to dilute its tokens to implement incentive programs.
In 2024, MNT has been the best-performing L2 token, outperforming major competitors such as MATIC, ARB, and OP by over 100%, and has become one of the few cryptocurrencies that has performed almost on par with ETH since the beginning of the year.
Unlike other L2 solutions, the unique aspect of Mantle Network is that it uses MNT as gas payment (which increases token utility), relatively higher liquidity than its competitors (which mitigates potential future selling pressure), and a massive $2.5 billion in liquid funds (to provide funding for future user incentives).
Despite MNT's advantages, L2 solutions in general face significant pressure from ongoing token unlocks and new token creation. Additionally, ecosystem activity for Mantle has decreased since June, and as users exit the ecosystem, the token may exhibit reflexivity, and 90% of the Mantle treasury is in MNT, meaning that when tokens are distributed as incentive airdrops, selling pressure may arise.
Livepeer (LPT)
View: Bearish
Reason: Limited alignment between product and market, token is overvalued
Prediction period: July 17, 2024, to October 17, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $16.98
Performance of the price since the prediction: Down 9.19%
The Bankless analysis team believes that Livepeer has limited alignment with the decentralized video streaming market, and due to continued lack of growth, LPT is overvalued and its performance in the coming months is not objectively favorable.
On July 17, the well-known cryptocurrency asset management company Grayscale announced the launch of its decentralized AI fund, aimed at providing investors with blockchain-based AI protocols, which Grayscale believes "can help mitigate fundamental risks associated with the proliferation of AI technology." Livepeer is one of the 5 assets included in the fund and will receive an 8.6% allocation.
Established in 2017, Livepeer is a decentralized video infrastructure network that provides live and on-demand streaming services. Despite being established for several years, Livepeer has limited adoption, with daily revenue not exceeding a few hundred dollars.
ETH Name Service (ENS)
View: Bearish
Reason: Token speculation is too high, actual usage has not increased
Prediction period: July 11, 2024, to October 11, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $26.07
Performance of the price since the prediction: Down 3.72%
The Bankless analysis team believes that ENS's valuation is higher than ever before, and its lack of growth will soon push the price to align with the fundamentals.
At the time of the analysis, ENS had risen by 90% from the bottom in May, possibly due to the potential approval of an ETH spot ETF by the SEC. Despite the token price surge, actual ENS usage sharply declined during this period; the weekly fees on July 1 dropped to only $192,000, the lowest level since July 2021.
Speculation on ENS as a high-beta yield on Ethereum has pushed its token price to 243x fees, the highest level on record, but unfortunately, the growth required to sustain the price increase has not materialized. If ENS were priced at the same multiple as in August last year, the token's trading price should be $3.46, 50% lower than the historical low and 85% lower than the analysis.
Celestia (TIA)
View: Bearish
Reason: Low income and severe inflation
Prediction period: July 9, 2024, to October 9, 2024
Predicted price at the time: $7.17
Performance of the price since the prediction: No significant change
Despite experiencing a significant retracement in price, the Bankless analysis team still expects the market to be unwilling to absorb the significant token inflation scheduled for October 31, which will double TIA's circulating supply.
TIA introduced the "stake-to-earn" narrative, coinciding with a relatively frothy crypto market sentiment after the airdrop, and surprised holders with 10x returns in just four months, reaching a peak in early February 2024.
While TIA promised to provide a lot of airdrop wealth to protect other crypto-economic network data stakers, in reality, only a few projects targeted TIA stakers for airdrops, and the received tokens only slightly increased the staking TIA yield, with staking income mainly coming from inflation of TIA tokens.
For some L2 solutions, affordable data availability with semi-degraded security guarantees may be an ideal feature, however, Celestia seems more like a charity than a commercial organization, as its potential income is extremely limited and needs to be subsidized through inflation.
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