In the past day, the price of BTC has been steadily rising, breaking through $66,000 at one point. The daily inflow of spot ETF reached $422 million, the highest since June, with a cumulative inflow of over $1 billion in three days, indicating increased investor confidence and institutional investment interest. On the other hand, Kraken has begun distributing a total of $3.1 billion in cryptocurrency (BTC/BCH) compensation to Mt Gox creditors, expected to be carried out gradually over the next 7 to 14 days. Despite this, potential selling pressure has been offset by institutional investor support, keeping the price of BTC strong. Some have pointed out that this potential selling is voluntary for creditors and differs from the German government's forced selling plan, thus its impact on the price is expected to be smaller.
As for ETH, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially granted preliminary approval for Ethereum spot ETFs to asset management companies including BlackRock and VanEck, with trading set to begin next Tuesday (July 23). This news has once again boosted the cryptocurrency market, with traders purchasing a large number of call options for expiration dates after the end of July, while simultaneously selling call options for 19JUL24 (before the start of ETH Spot ETF trading), forming a calendar spread strategy.
Source: TradingView
Looking at the volatility, the IV levels at the medium to long end have been significantly raised in the past 24 hours, with a more pronounced trend of the BTC term IV curve flattening. The IV for August and September has reached over 60%, exceeding the 75th percentile of the past three months' historical data. From the IV vs RV chart, it can also be seen that the 30d/60d IV has rapidly risen, showing a substantial Vol Premium compared to RV.
Source: Deribit (as of 17JUL 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, ETH trading overall distribution; selling call options for the front end, buying call options for the middle and back end, with 7.23 as the dividing point
Data Source: Deribit, BTC trading overall distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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