Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | jk

Looking at July 2024, it is widely predicted that Trump's victory in this year's US election is only a matter of time. From the perspective of the crypto world, Trump is undoubtedly more pro-crypto compared to the current US President Biden; not only does he have a friendly relationship with various crypto bigwigs, but he has also chosen a vice presidential candidate who is pro-crypto and has made many promises to the crypto industry.

However, there are also dissenting voices: On July 11th, Arthur Hayes said that Trump's sudden interest in cryptocurrency is not sincere.

Hayes said,

Pleasing the young, politically active, and nouveau riche cryptocurrency community may help Trump win the election. Therefore, Trump is enhancing his image among cryptocurrency supporters by saying all the "right things." Unfortunately, this new political attention has caught the eye of many in our industry. The political "hot chicks" are trying to take us home, rather than the other way around. These feelings are wrong. The playboy of cryptocurrency is not a movie star, but a fool standing on the edge of the party.

What frustrates me is that many cryptocurrency experts who should know better are now blindly holding fancy fundraising events for Trump's campaign. They mistakenly believe that Trump is sincere, and as long as they donate enough money, the "anti-crypto action" will disappear. This is pure nonsense. Trump is a shrewd politician. He will say anything to anyone who wants to be re-elected. Once in office, anything related to cryptocurrency will become a distant memory.

So, let Odaily Planet Daily take everyone back to review history: How many of Trump's former campaign promises have been fulfilled? Especially in the economic and new technology fields, the success rate of this part will in some sense become a reference for Trump's attitude towards the crypto field.

How many of Trump's former campaign promises have been fulfilled?

In his previous campaigns, Trump actually made many promises. Generally, serious, publicly made, and repeatedly mentioned promises are selected for statistical purposes. According to the neutral website PolitiFact, during his previous term as president, Trump successfully kept about 23% of his promises, compromised and partially fulfilled 22% of his promises, but broke about 53% of his promises. In other words, the data seems to support Arthur Hayes's point of view.

Percentage of promises kept by Trump. Source: PolitiFact

In the economic field, the promises that Trump successfully kept in his previous term include:

• Did not cut social security payments (he did try to cut and broke his own promise, but was stopped by Congress)

• Increased tariffs

• Renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement

• Lowered some taxes

• Withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

The promises that were not successfully kept include:

• Investing in US infrastructure and establishing a US infrastructure fund

• Achieving 4% annual economic growth

• Bringing industry back to the US

• Cutting federal spending

• Reducing federal debt and lowering the deficit

• Reducing the number of tax brackets from seven to three

• Making China leave the World Trade Organization

• Building a wall across the US-Mexico border and making Mexico pay for it

Although we can make effective predictions for the future based on this data, it can be seen that if it is something that the Trump administration can have full authority to achieve, some issues have indeed been resolved; but if it involves deeper economic development issues (such as US government debt), it is highly likely that they cannot be resolved.

What promises has Trump made in the crypto field?

Currently, the promises made by Trump in the crypto field can be summarized as follows: (Data sources include CNBC and Bloomberg)

1. Trump invited the holders of his NFT series to his home in Florida and promised to end the regulatory hostility towards the industry if re-elected;

2. At the Libertarian National Convention, he promised to release Ross Ulbricht, who was convicted for creating the dark web market "Silk Road";

3. At the same convention, he vowed to keep Senator Elizabeth Warren (who proposed a strong regulatory bill for the crypto industry) and "her henchmen" away from Bitcoin holders.

4. In June, after meeting with executives from several Bitcoin mining companies, Trump announced that if he returns to the White House, all future Bitcoin will be minted in the United States. (This should not be considered a firm commitment)

Looking at these points, in some way "ending regulatory hostility," such as replacing Gary Gensler, and releasing Ross Ulbricht are indeed within the White House's authority, so based on previous data, these may indeed be goals that Trump can achieve once in office.

It is worth mentioning that this is almost the opposite of Trump's own attitude five years ago. In 2019, Trump himself tweeted, "I am not a fan of Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air."

Trump's tweet in 2019. Source: Bloomberg

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