Yesterday, Bitcoin hit a recent rebound high of $59,400. When Bitcoin broke through $58,000, some classmates couldn't hold back and raised a series of questions such as whether to buy in a short position or whether to chase after the high. However, without enough patience, blindly chasing the rise or getting stuck halfway up the mountain often leads to deep entrapment.

From the perspective of the daily chart, attention should be paid to the 120-day moving average and the 30-day lifeline. The 30-day lifeline belongs to the medium-term moving average, and the 120-day lifeline is the long-term moving average. Currently, the direction of these two moving averages has turned from an upward trend to a downward trend, especially the 30-day moving average has turned severely, and the 120-day moving average only turned at the range from $63,000 to $53,000, and a death cross has formed between the 30-day and 120-day moving averages. As a trend indicator, at the daily chart level, Bitcoin's current rebound is just a rebound, and there is absolutely no possibility of a reversal in the short term unless there is significant positive news. Even with significant positive news, there is a lack of sufficient funds to drive its rise.

One of the key points we need to focus on is $58,000, more precisely $58,800. Yesterday, a needle pierced through the channel track, but today's closing formed a propeller, indicating a divergence between long and short positions at this level, and the long shadow also indicates significant selling pressure from above. Therefore, the current Bitcoin price has not yet broken free from the oscillation range of $59,000 to $53,000.

Regarding trading opportunities at the daily chart level, a range trading strategy can be adopted, with $59,000 as the upper limit and $53,000 as the lower limit, doing high selling and low buying in this range. It may be more appropriate to consider a second oscillation range of $58,000 to $54,000, buying at the lower end and selling at the higher end in this range. When to break the balance, when to stay out and observe.

If it breaks through and stabilizes above $59,000, one can follow the trend or temporarily wait and see, because there is still pressure from the 120-day and 30-day moving averages above. If it falls below $53,000, the Bitcoin price may have a larger decline. Before breaking through and stabilizing above $59,000, this position of $53,000 should be considered as a continuation of the downtrend.

Back to the 4-hour chart, the Bitcoin price has formed a double bottom structure at the bottom. The neckline is at $58,200. Although there was a breakthrough yesterday, it was suppressed after reaching $59,400, which is also the position of the channel drawn earlier. After experiencing two channel declines, it needs to consolidate within a channel at this point. After encountering strong pressure here, it continues to decline and breaks through the neckline.

Next, the target price for Bitcoin should test the range of $54,700 to $54,000. If there is an opportunity, one can consider going long or buying at the positions of $54,700 and $54,500, and patiently wait for the overhead pressure, targeting $59,000 or $58,000. This is the high selling and low buying strategy of range trading, until it breaks through the lower channel or the upper channel. From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is slowly pulling back.

In addition, the CPI data for June will be released at 8:30 tonight. Last week, the CPI value for the previous month was lower than the expected value, at 3.3, which is positive for cryptocurrencies. If the June data is also lower than the expected value, it will also be positive for cryptocurrencies, but whether it will be a flash in the pan or will drive more funds into the market is still unknown. Jiuge's view is that even if there is an uptrend, it will be short-lived and difficult to change its current downtrend, so one still needs to follow the trend.

Looking at Ethereum, at the daily chart level, $2,800 to $2,820 is a temporary low. From the 4-hour chart, if there is an opportunity to pull back to the $2,800 to $2,900 range, one can also choose to buy low and sell high, with the overhead pressure at $3,100. Ethereum has also formed a double bottom, and the neckline is currently supported at $3,080, but there may be an opportunity to break through to the downside due to extremely low trading volume.

Moreover, with the endorsement of Justin Sun, it is said that he bought Ethereum yesterday, betting on its future trend. Ethereum can also be considered as a priority asset. When it pulls back to $2,900 to $2,800, one can use part of the position to buy low and sell high or gradually build a position at the lower level.

Finally, regarding position management, the position ratio for each trade should not exceed 30% of the total assets, and it is recommended to be between 10% and 30%. The overall stop-loss should be set at 7%. If a single trade falls below 7%, one should exit unconditionally.

This is all the content analysis for today, including the daily and 4-hour trends of Bitcoin, the daily and 4-hour price trends of Ethereum, and position control strategies. For more content, please contact the assistant to join the VIP.

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