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After many days, it has been updated again. It's not really being lazy. According to the planned market trend, I have been managing the position honestly. I don't have the mood to update daily about the ups and downs. The more I do, the more mistakes I make. Stick to the direction, hold the position, and leave the rest to fate.
The long-awaited final target of 53500 was achieved last Friday. From the evening of last month's CPI data when it dropped from 69000 all the way down, regardless of the continuous 68500, 67700, 66700 given in the Huobi live broadcast room, when the market reached 53500, all the pressure was worth it, including the mockery and abuse in the private messages. At this moment, it feels like the best proof, making the haters unable to deny the possibility, which may be the greatest recognition of my ability.
Initially, you didn't believe that 69000 could drop to 53000. How many people have actually received the windfall of 16000 points? Everyone will only regret, slap themselves, and say they regret not doing it earlier, and then hope that the "Coin Victory Team" will update the article and definitely go all in, definitely seize the opportunity. However, in the next windfall, I don't know how many people can get it.
Well, let's not say much. Today's updated article is certainly to discuss important matters with everyone. First, refute several market arguments and misleading statements.
- The "Coin Victory Team" short target of 53500 has been reached. Is it time to start bottom fishing?
Personal opinion: This belongs to the end of the second phase of the decline, but it does not mean it's time to bottom fish. There is still a third phase of decline, which is the final decline. The third decline hovers and adjusts for a longer period, and the energy after the outbreak is greater. It is reasonable to fall to the range of 48000-43000, and in extreme cases, break through 40000 directly to around 32000. So, the bottom fishing point and time have not been reached.
- Biden may withdraw from the election, and Trump is highly likely to win the election. Is it beneficial for the cryptocurrency market?
Personal opinion: Pinning the rise of the bull market on Trump winning the election, and promoting this kind of argument, is either foolish or malicious. They neither understand Trump nor the political rules of the United States. First, you need to understand Trump's governing ideology. He belongs to extreme populism, different from the Democratic Party establishment. The difference between them can be illustrated by saying that the former only wants to govern the country, while the latter wants to govern the world. Trump seeks to bring back manufacturing, essentially suppressing the financial industry and strengthening the real economy in the United States. The Democratic Party, on the other hand, seeks to consolidate America's global influence, continuing to harvest the world using the interest rate cycle of the Federal Reserve and making money lying down with financial tools.
Secondly, the political rules of the United States involve fighting but not harming the family. This is a political tacit understanding and balance that the two parties have maintained for 200 years. However, this balance was broken by the Democratic Party first. Previously, in order to prevent Trump from being re-elected, they fabricated the Russia-gate, and even tried to convict Trump using the federal court. This is already using all means. Do you expect Trump not to settle scores after taking office? Do you not understand his vengeful character? Now, Biden's son has also been accused of receiving huge bribes and engaging in improper transactions with technology companies in Silicon Valley. In other words, even if Biden wants to avoid being settled, he cannot simply withdraw. This is not just about maintaining the competitiveness of the Democratic Party, but also about his own life and wealth. Therefore, we can infer a course of action for the market based on the news. Biden's team clarifies the withdrawal rumors - the cryptocurrency market experiences another rapid decline - the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September - the cryptocurrency market welcomes a retaliatory rally - the cryptocurrency market enters a bottoming phase on the eve of the election. There is a bug here, if there is no interest rate cut in September, then after the U.S. election, if Trump is elected, the Federal Reserve will definitely cut interest rates.
- The German government is selling Bitcoin, and Mentougou is entering the compensation stage. Will this cause the cryptocurrency market to enter a bear market again?
Personal opinion: This is groundless worry. It is currently the preparatory stage before the bull market, and there is no bear market at all. The tens of thousands of Bitcoins in the hands of Germany do not have the power to change the cryptocurrency market. It's just market speculation. The same goes for Mentougou. Not to mention that Mentougou's time is a routine to stir up speculation every year. Moreover, a considerable proportion of Mentougou's compensation is based on the price of the year of the loss. How much value can this be? Don't think too much about it. Don't believe this kind of news, it doesn't affect the market.
Seeing this, we can further determine the basic trend of the subsequent market and the feasibility of bottom fishing. First of all, it is certain that the current decline cycle has not ended. Before the bull market starts, the cryptocurrency market will experience the final panic decline. This kind of decline will inevitably be accompanied by stories and short-term terrifying waterfall declines. There are only two possible stories here: one is that the Federal Reserve clearly does not raise interest rates in September, and the other is that the Biden team clarifies the withdrawal rumors. We just need to wait for the waterfall to appear. From a technical perspective, the 53000-50000 range is a very strong support area. This area is not only a technical formation, but also a bullish outbreak caused by the formation of a box-shaped absorption during the early rise this year. More importantly, in terms of timing, many people seem to have forgotten the atmosphere of the bull market that was created earlier this year. The most crucial factor was based on the approval of the Bitcoin ETF. After the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in January, Bitcoin's market was in a week-long oscillation in the 53000-50000 range, followed by a breakthrough and a unilateral rise. The "Coin Victory Team" has every reason to believe that this area is the cost price at which retail investors in the U.S. stock market entered the market after the Bitcoin ETF was approved. Now we need to consider that the high-level large cycle box oscillations in March, April, May, and June were all concentrated in the range of 60000-70000. If this year is an early entry into the bull market, we wouldn't have seen prices below 60000 at all, and the necessary adjustments would have been made early. So the reality shows that the high-level large box formed in the past few months is just a comfort zone created by the main force, allowing everyone to get used to the 60000-70000 range. Coupled with the hype of the bull market atmosphere, it made everyone expect to break through and set a new historical high at any time. In this process, it also made everyone in the market accept the habitual thinking that a 10,000-point pullback is a bottom fishing opportunity.
So the purpose of the current decline is obviously to shake out the high-level spot positions. After shaking out the high-level spot positions, do the retail investors in the U.S. stock market need to be harvested, that is, do these newbies who entered the market through the ETF need to be shaken out together? Or should these people run ahead of the old leeks and directly board the bull market bandwagon? I don't believe that these people won't be shaken out. As for why 53000 encountered a strong rebound last Friday, directly pulling up to 58000? The reason is simple, it needs to be differentiated and disintegrated, because the 53000-50000 range is too important. This is the last line of defense for the spot holders. Once broken, the vast majority of retail investors in the market will start from scratch. It is very normal to encounter strong resistance. The main force will not want to break through in one go. This requires facing the united resistance of everyone, with the risk of stealing a chicken and losing the rice. Instead of doing this, it is better to form a box-shaped oscillation above 53000-50000, step by step disintegrate the determination of the bulls, especially the rebound to 58000, not only temporarily relaxes the vigilance of the bulls, but also lures people to add positions in advance, creating a more favorable environment for the subsequent decline.
Summary: The range of 53000-50000 will not be touched for the time being. Instead, a box will be formed, and this box oscillation period will not be short. After the market has experienced sufficient turnover between long and short positions, it will sequentially break through 53000, 50000, and then trigger the final accelerated decline. After this decline, we will enter the bottoming phase before the bull market takes off, which is the long-awaited bottom fishing phase for us. I have never been a bear, the "Coin Victory Team" is just waiting for the bottom fishing process, and taking advantage of the trend to short. For me, I still firmly believe that Bitcoin will soar in the upcoming bull market, aiming for 150,000. In the short term, as long as the market approaches 53000, for example, 53500, you can go long, and if it falls below 53000, just run. Always go long based on 53500, taking profit at 2000 points each time, until the position breaks below 53000.
In the long term, for now, consider 58500 as a false breakthrough, with the real box concentrated in the range of 53000-56000. Choose two positions for the third round of shorting.
Position one: Short near 56000, stop loss at 56500, if it falls below 53000, directly target 48000-45000. This week, consider reducing positions at 53500.
Position two: Short near 58000, stop loss at 58500, if it falls below 53000, directly target 48000-45000. This week, consider reducing positions at 53500.
In the CPI in June, I clearly pointed out in the article that Bitcoin is definitely starting to decline, with the first phase at 58000, followed by 53000. In the CPI in May, I clearly pointed out in the article that the target for the reversal of Bitcoin's decline is 53000, and predicted that the U.S. stock market will continue to reach new highs, the U.S. dollar will forcibly rise, and hot money will not flow into the cryptocurrency market. Looking back now, who was right and who was wrong, it's all self-evident.
I am the "Coin Victory Team". I may not have much, but I do my best to create a different small circle, adding a bit more fun to this cruel market. The small circle provides two orders for everyone to operate every day, and shares practical knowledge in the live broadcast every night at 8:30 PM.
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