Zhou Yanling: Why has the cryptocurrency market experienced consecutive plunges on July 6th? How will the market trend develop in the second half of the year? The latest authoritative interpretation
In just 4 days, Bitcoin has dropped nearly 16,000 points! This wave of plunges is mainly due to a series of attacks, including miners surrendering, continuous selling by the German government, expected selling in Mentougou, and the triggering of market panic due to Mt. Gox compensation. This plunge is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the bulls. Subsequently, yesterday's non-farm payroll report was released, and many people were hoping for a positive impact from it. Unfortunately, the report did not meet expectations, causing the market to fluctuate and return to its original position. Many people were expecting a bottoming out and upward surge based on the non-farm payroll report, but instead, it turned out to be negative news. However, the market did not continue to decline, but instead continued to rebound slowly. It is clear that the market is digesting this wave of emotions. The current fluctuation is enough to indicate that the market is gradually returning to calm. The market has basically digested the data-driven rally, and now there are many voices in the market claiming that it is a good time to buy and wait for the next bull market. However, Yanling believes that everyone should still be cautious.
Currently, from a technical perspective, the market needs a period of repair and consolidation. Throughout this week, the market has been in a downtrend, with long shadow lines appearing multiple times. From a technical indicator perspective, the MACD is below the zero axis, and both the DIF and DEA are negative and continue to decline, indicating that the market is still in a bearish sentiment. The recent MACD histogram of several candlesticks shows signs of amplification, suggesting an increase in selling pressure. The RSI is currently around 36, close to the oversold area, but has not yet entered an extremely oversold state, so there may be a certain demand for a rebound. However, overall, the RSI value is low, and the market sentiment still tends to be pessimistic. The current price is also below all major moving averages, further confirming the downward pressure. Therefore, it is still too early to claim that a bull market will appear after a bottoming out and rebound in the short term. A small rebound in the short-term bullish trend is not a problem, but do not be greedy, otherwise you may lose the space that you should have already gained. In weekend operations, the focus should be on the upper resistance level around 58,900, and any rebound should be seen as temporary and taken advantage of.
July 6th Bitcoin trading strategy:
- Short at 57,200-56,700, stop loss above 57,800, target near 54,000, continue to break through and look at around 51,900
- Long at 53,900-54,500, stop loss below 53,300, target near 55,600
July 6th Ethereum trading strategy:
- Short at 3,040-3,000, stop loss above 3,080, target near 2,850, continue to break through and look at around 2,770
- Long at 2,840-2,880, stop loss below 2,800, target 2,960-3,000
[The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks on your own. The publication of the article may have a lag in strategy and does not have timeliness. Please refer to Yanling's real-time strategy for specific operations.]
This article is exclusively authored and shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling (WeChat public account: Zhou Yanling). The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for more than ten years, mainly analyzing and guiding operations in the cryptocurrency contract/spot market, such as BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV, etc. If you need to understand more real-time community guidance, consultation on getting out of trouble, and learning chart reading skills, you can follow the public account "Zhou Yanling" to find the author.
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