Title: AICoin

Macro News Interpretation:

① The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of last month's monetary policy meeting at 2 am today. The main point of the minutes is that the Federal Reserve is waiting for "more information" to gain confidence in cutting interest rates. Some officials even indicated that if inflation continues at a high level or rises, there may be a possibility of raising interest rates.

② These pieces of information reveal the hawkish attitude within the Federal Reserve, indicating not only a delay in the expectation of interest rate cuts, but also the possibility of raising interest rates. This naturally benefits the US dollar and is negative for the cryptocurrency market, leading to a certain degree of decline in BTC.

Data Analysis: Sharp Decline in Correlation between BTC and S&P 500, Approaching Historical Bottom Patterns.

① The chart shows the trends of BTC and the S&P 500 index, with the sub-chart below displaying the correlation coefficient between the two.

② Looking back at the trends over the past five years, there has been a high positive correlation between the two in the first half of 2020-2021, as well as from the end of 2021 to 2022, meaning the coefficient was very close to 1. At the beginning of this year, both experienced synchronous increases, also in a positively correlated state.

③ The S&P 500 has continued to rise this year, reaching a new historical high in the early hours before the Independence Day holiday, but BTC has been consistently declining recently, falling below $58,000 today, marking a new low since early May. Therefore, the current correlation coefficient between the two has also dropped below 0.05, indicating a significant divergence in the trends of the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market.

④ Since 2019, BTC and the S&P 500 have only been negatively correlated four times (after the intersection of the blue line I drew in the sub-chart with the black vertical line), and each time occurred around the low points of BTC prices. If the correlation coefficient falls below 0 this time, it may once again exhibit this historical pattern of negative correlation.

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