NVIDIA bravely won the global market value first place, and long-term holders of BTC sold $1.2 billion, setting a new historical high!

CN
1 year ago

Macro interpretation: Last night, the US stock market showed a positive trend, with all three major stock indexes rising, and the Nasdaq and S&P hitting new historical highs. Nvidia's performance was eye-catching, with its market value soaring to the top of the global rankings. Today, we can continue to focus on AI and technology-related project tokens in the cryptocurrency market. In addition, the yield on the US ten-year Treasury bonds fell, gold edged up, and the US dollar index edged down, indicating cautious optimism about the economic outlook in the market.

In terms of monetary policy, statements from several Federal Reserve officials in the early morning revealed the possibility of future interest rate cuts. The decline in inflation expectations and the slowdown in economic growth have made interest rate cuts later this year a consensus among many officials. However, different officials hold different views on the frequency and magnitude of interest rate cuts, showing the Fed's caution and divergence in monetary policy formulation.

In terms of economic data, US retail sales in May fell short of expectations, indicating weak consumer demand. A new study also revealed the different effects of quantitative easing policies on different central banks. Internationally, Putin signed a strategic partnership treaty with North Korea, while Israel approved a combat plan against Hezbollah in Lebanon, indicating an escalation of regional tensions.

Next is the June holiday in the US, during which the New York Stock Exchange, CME, and ICE will be closed or end trading early. At that time, BTC spot ETFs and futures contracts will be unable to trade or will have shorter trading hours, which is expected to reduce the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market and correspondingly weaken market volatility.

Data analysis:

CryptoQuant data: Over the past two weeks, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold $1.2 billion, setting a new historical high, and ETF net outflows reached $460 million.

We can verify the above data, and the large-scale selling currently indicates that some long-term holders and short-to-medium-term ETF holders are cautious about the future trend of BTC, or they choose to sell at high levels to hedge potential market risks.

It is important to note that if this $1.6 billion in sales is not absorbed in the OTC market, it will flow into exchanges, further increasing the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges and creating downward pressure on the market.

These data and trend changes may also trigger changes in market sentiment, especially when the record high selling volume of long-term holders causes panic. When the market generally begins to believe that BTC will decline, it will lead to more selling behavior, creating a vicious cycle. Of course, if the secondary market can absorb the increase in BTC supply, or new buyers enter the market to support prices, the market may stabilize or rebound.

Similarly, yesterday's on-chain indicators also showed that selling pressure came from long-term holders, whales, miners, and ETF outflows. The Hodler net position change indicator, which measures whale holdings, has been negative over the past 10 days.

As for Ethereum, according to on-chain data monitoring, a major player has withdrawn 16,604 ETH from Binance for accumulation in the past 19 days, worth $58.23 million, with an average withdrawal price of about $3,602. The most recent withdrawal was 3,600 ETH worth $12.69 million, half an hour ago.

In addition, a total of 4,330,294.27 ETH has been burned on the Ethereum network. Since the introduction of EIP-1559 in the London upgrade, the Ethereum network will dynamically adjust the BaseFee for each transaction based on transaction demand and block size, and this portion of the fee will be directly burned.

Today, there is also major positive news for ETH, as the SEC has concluded its investigation into Ethereum 2.0 and will not charge Ethereum sales as securities trading. From major accumulation, to Ethereum burning to suppress inflation, to the conclusion of the SEC investigation, these are also the reasons why ETH's increase today is much greater than that of BTC.

In the community, we recommend going long on rebounds near $64,000-$64,300. The actual lowest price in the early morning market was $64,010, with a potential profit of about $1,700. We will continue to track and provide updates within the community.

Disclaimer: The strategy only represents personal subjective opinions, is for reference only, and does not constitute a basis for trading. Any operations based on this carry their own risks.

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